Wednesday, July 22, 2015

7/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Unlike the meets at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos, Del Mar only features one Pick Four on their cards; so there's no need to differentiate between early and late.  Another difference in the Del Mar meet is that there's racing on Wednesday, which today just happens to be.  So since I've got myself some free time, let's have a mid-week special and take a run at the Pick Four where the Turf meets the Surf.

Race 5 - [S] MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Heat (Morning Line 7-2)
# 11 Diablo Caballero (ML 9-2)

B's

# 7 Over Par (ML 9-2)

C's

# 4 What a View (ML 20-1)

Diablo Caballero and Heat took the Place and Show (respectively) charging down the hill at Santa Anita in the same contest at today's class level, missing the winner by less than a length.  Over Par disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, but he didn't embarrass, taking the Place with an effort that could win today if repeated.  What a View is a son of Vronsky trying grass for the first time.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Savings Account (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Roksana (ML 10-1)
# 6 Divina Comedia (Fr) (ML 3-1)

Last time out, Savings Account earned a Beyer Speed Figure that towers over anything that anyone else in this field has done in their career.  So the question is: do you believe that figure?  Personally, I do.  I think Savings Account ran to her true ability in what was her dirt debut last time out, and that she is very much capable of repeating that effort again today.  The bullet work that Savings Account turned in over this main track last Wednesday is just one more point in her favor.

Roksana was victimized by a loose saddle last time out; since she was showing a steadily improving form prior to that contest, I think that she's entitled to another chance today.  Divina Comedia (Fr), like Savings Account only somewhat less so, turned in a career best effort in her first try ever on a fast dirt track; perhaps Divina Comedia can move forward off that effort.

RACE 7 - [R] The Wickerr $80k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Kulik Lodge (ML 7-2)
# 6 Pure Tactics (ML 12-1)
# 8 Global View (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 County Lineman (ML 12-1)
# 2 Footstepsinbronze (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 3 Zuri Chop (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Wilkinson (ML 15-1)
# 11 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)

C's

None

# 7 Play Hard to Get (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

This is a restricted stakes, open only to those that have not won a stakes of $50k or higher since March 1 EXCLUDING stakes limited to state bred competition AND ALSO EXCLUDING stakes run at a distance of less than eight furlongs.

Kulik Lodge won an N3X on the grass last time out with Global View less than a length behind that looks to be stronger than the Beyers that they each earned might lead you to believe.  Pure Tactics has won the last two restricted stakes in which he's competed.

County Lineman was right behind Pure Tactics last time out in the Siren Lure.  Footstepsinbronze (Ire) has yet to finish out of the Exacta in six turf tries.  Zuri Chop (Fr) is making his North American debut after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in his last two tries in Europe.

Wilkinson returns to competition for the first time in almost two years.  If Wilkerson can pick up where he last left off, he just might get his picture taken today.  Winning Prize (Arg) is getting some significant class relief here; but the far outside draw for a horse that likes to be upfront early is a concern.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Luvuryan (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Dixie Tweet (ML 5-2)
# 5 Katsfashion (ML 6-1)

C's

# 6 Gentle Caroline (ML 8-1)
# 7 Chicago Angel (ML 5-1)
# 10 Katy's Plum (ML 12-1)

# 4 Honky Tonk Diva (ML 30-1) is a program scratch, so bring in # 11 Crystal Harbor (ML 10-1) off the Also Eligible List; however, the other Also Elibigles, # 12 Union Blaze (ML 15-1), # 13 Rodeo Drive Diva (ML 30-1), and # 14 Queen Khaleesi (ML 20-1) do not draw in, and get to spend the afternoon hanging out in the barn.

Luvuryan, trying to prove that the twelfth time's the charm, gets her first career try on a fast dirt track.  Dixie Tweet drops in class and could be early speed on the rail.  Katsfashion is another that has shown good early speed against more expensive stock.  

Gentle Caroline drops in from non-claiming maidens in her second career try.  Chicago Angel has finished in the Trifecta all four times that she's competed at today's distance.  Katy's Plum could be running best late if it all falls apart up front.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9,11 with 5 with 4,6,8 with 8 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,9,11 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,10,11 with 1,5,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 4,6,8 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 9,11 with 4,6 with 4,6,8 with 8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 9,11 with 5 with 4,6,8 with 6,7,10 $9.00

Total: $58.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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