RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Sweet as a Rose (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 3 Chaulk O Lattey (ML 3-1)
# 6 Warren's Jen Fizz (ML 8-1)
# 11 Zanbo (ML 6-1)
C's
# 8 Hiking (ML 6-1)
# 10 Show Stealer (ML 12-1)
# 2 Best Efforts (ML 20-1) has been scratched; but don't bring # 13 Miss Boom Boom in off the Also Eligible List to replace her; rather, bring in # 14 Josephine's Moment (ML 10-1).
Sweet as a Rose closed well last time out at Santa Anita while crossing the wire in front of Chaulk O Lattey. Sweet as a Rose has finished in the Exacta in each of her two career tries on the Del Mar grass.
Chaulk O Lattey has two careers wins, which also just happened to be the two previous times that today's rider Rafael Bejarano was on her back. Warren's Jen Fizz showed some nice late foot two starts back; likewise for Zanbo in a separate contest.
Hiking showed good versatility in her running style in her races across the pond. Show Stealer could be the one swooping in late if things get crazy on the front end.
RACE 8 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bayern (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Hoppertunity (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Appealing Tale (ML 8-1)
# 6 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 3-1)
# 1 Nowalking (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
If Bayern does not make the early lead, or at least get within a head of the early leader, then Bayern can't be bothered with running the rest of the race. That was the case in his last two races, the Grade 1 Met Mile and the Grade 2 Churchill Downs. It was also the case in last year's Preakness. So if you don't think Bayern can be either leading the pack or right up on the pace early, then don't bet Bayern, and don't put him on your tickets.
I think Bayern makes the early lead today. The only entrant here that I can see competing with Bayern in the early going is Appealing Tale; and, quite frankly, as good as Appealing Tale is, I don't think that he's anywhere near as quick out of the gate as Bayern is. So I think Bayern, who is a lifetime three-for-three in the state of California, makes the early lead. Then it's just a matter as to whether or not he can hold off Hoppertunity late.
Appealing Tale and Catch a Flight (Arg) back up Bayern and Hoppertunity, respectively. If Bayern fails to fire, if Bayern should stumble out of the gate, then Appealing Tale should have things all to himself, at least in the early going. If Hoppertunity doesn't have his A-Game today, then Catch a Flight could be the one getting first run on the leader in the stretch.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Unblunted (ML 5-1)
# 2 Micks Miracle (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 K Thirty Eight (ML 6-1)
C's
# 7 Papa Turf (ML 12-1)
# 8 Big Tire (ML 6-1)
# 9 Airfoil (ML 8-1)
# 11 Syndicated (ML 20-1)
# 12 Biltmore Boogie (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Unblunted and Micks Miracle exit the same last out contest, where they took the Place and Show, respectively, at today's class level. K Thirty Eight ran a monster race two starts back; perhaps it was a fluke, but if he can repeat that effort then he'll win by daylight today. Also note that K Thirty Eight's two career wins came in the only two prior contests in which he had today's rider, Alex Solis, on his back.
Papa Turf moves up in class today, but the Beyer Speed Figures that Papa Turf has been earning of late fit well with the contenders in this field. Big Tire cuts back in distance today; the last time Big Tire went around only one turn he grabbed the Place at this class level.
Airfoil was a winner the last time that he competed at today's class level. Syndicated may improve with the change in barn.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Artisticdifference (ML 6-1)
B's
# 10 Scandal (ML 5-2)
# 11 Place des Vosges (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Yaffe (ML 20-1)
# 12 Margaret Reay (ML 6-1)
Let the Also Eligibles, # 13 Girl Downstairs (ML 6-1) and # 14 Entebbe (ML 10-1) stay in the barn this afternoon.
Foolish Ways (Ire) closed well in taking the Show at this class level last time out. Artisticdifference also closed well in that same contest, which was Artisticdifference's debut.
Scandal and Place des Vosges each took the Place in separate contests at this class level last time out; though the outside draw in today's race is a concern for each. Yaffe showed a nice closing kick charging down the hill in her debut last time out. Margaret Reay is Graded Stakes placed; though she too may be disadvantaged by the outside draw, especially since Margaret Reay seems to prefer being forwardly placed.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 1,2 with 2,9 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,9,11 with 3,4 with 1,2,5 with 2,9,10,11 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 8.10 with 4 with 1,2 with 2,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 2,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 7,8,9,11 with 2,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 1,2 with 4,12 $2.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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