7/1/17 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

We begin a new month, and it kicks off with a Holiday Weekend; well, sorta.  July 4th is Independence Day in the USA, and falling as it does on a Tuesday this year means that many Americans will be enjoying a four day weekend, while many others will have to hopscotch over a work day between the 2nd and the 4th.  Indeed, your's truly will be among the many finding themselves at their day job on the 3rd; so Monday's races will have to be run without my input.  But that's Monday's problem; Saturday's problem is the Final Four races on the card of the Alameda County Fair.  So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 C J's Dream (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 1 She Perfect (ML 12-1)

# 2 Pequena Maty (ML 6-1)

# 3 Chrome Princess (ML 5-1)
# 4 Mysteriousmagician (ML 3-1)
# 5 Lovely Spy (ML 10-1)

# 6 Equites (ML 6-1)
# 7 Not a Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sweet Little Zip (ML 15-1)

C's

None

C J's Dream missed graduation by just a nose at this class level two starts back.  C J's Dream has certainly proven that she can contend at this level.  The concern with C J's Dream is that the worst effort in her seven race career came the only prior time that she competed on a Fast dirt track; specifically this Fast dirt track.  Now, that contest was also C J's Dream's debut; so the question is: did she not like the surface, or did she just need to get a race under her belt?

C J's Dream is the only runner in this field with more than two career races, and she is the only runner that has proven that she can contend at this level.  So if C J's Dream can't handle the surface, then in my opinion this become's anyone's race; and rather than gamble on a first round knockout, I decided that I'll be punching the "ALL" button in this leg.

RACE 8 - (F) Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Quick Song (ML 7-2)

# 6 Missionelle (ML 2-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Our Favorite City (ML 4-1)

# 8 Pulpit Gold (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 3 Play Nice (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and only one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less.  For the record, # 2 Quick Song and # 6 Missionelle are the only two runners in this field to have visited the Winner's Circle twice in their career.  It's not a coincidence that those two are also my top choices in this event.

Our Favorite City may have gained from the experience last time out in her first try against winners.  Pulpit Gold graduated by daylight last time out at Golden Gate.  If the early speed that Pulpit Gold showed in her first two career races holds up against the stiffer competition that she'll face today, Pulpit Gold could prove to be quite a handful here.

RACE 9 - (F) The Juan Gonzalez Memorial $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Song From Above (ML 3-1)

# 9 Miss Shirley (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 5 Lucky Antares (ML 6-1)
# 8 Vinaka (ML 5-1)

Song From Above is the only non-Maiden in this field of juvenile fillies, having won in her debut last time out.  Miss Shirley took the Show in her debut last time out despite a troubled trip.

Lucky Antares was just a length behind the winner at the wire while filling out the Superfecta in her debut last time out.  Vinaka is a first time starter who had some nice works down at Santa Anita in preparation for this contest.

RACE 10 - Clm $10k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Macho Marini (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 4 Valiant Flame (ML 2-1)
# 7 Van Lingle Mungo (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Tiz Point (ML 9-2)

# 2 Nevadan (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 Boldly True (ML 12-1) and # 8 El Rey Fernando (ML 15-1)

Macho Marini took the Place against more expensive last time out.  Valiant Flame missed victory by just a head against more expensive last time out; but Valiant Flame is oh-for-fourteen lifetime on a Fast dirt track, which is more than just a minor concern, especially at the Morning Line price of just 2-1.  Van Lingle Mungo won at this class level last time out; but that was more than twelve months ago.

Tiz Point and Nevadan look the be the primary pace setters today, especially with the 1-2 draw in Post Positions.  If one of them should falter at the break, the other could be long gone before the primary contenders can shift into top gear.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 2,6 with 6,9 with 9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 2,6 with 6,9 with 4,7,9 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,8 with 6,9 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,6 with 5,8 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,6 with 6,9 with 1,2 $4.00

Total: $66.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:54 EDT / 4:54 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo