"You have to love a nation that celebrates its independence every July 4, not with a parade of guns, tanks, and soldiers who file by the White House in a show of strength and muscle, but with family picnics where kids throw Frisbees, the potato salad gets iffy, and the flies die from happiness. You may think you have overeaten, but it is patriotism." - Erma Bombeck
Happy Independence Day, America! Hopefully everyone has been enjoying this holiday in a manner of their own choosing, and hopefully that enjoyment will be extended throughout the day.
So it turns out that I waited a bit too long to jump into the Jackpot Pick Six pool at the Alameda County Fair, as someone scooped the pot Monday, taking home $28,207.28 for their twenty cent wager (may God bless them as they spend their winnings). But having already handicapped the sequence for Tuesday, I decided to just go with it; and while it won't be a big blast, who knows; maybe it will produce some sparkles and pop. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Gold Rush Pick Six at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.
RACE 4 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 An Khe Pass (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Mirror Image (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Pick One (ML 4-1)
# 6 Boleo (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Twice as Fast (ML 5-1)
# 5 At Twilight Time (ML 8-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and only one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less. For the record, # 1 An Khe Pass, # 3 Mirror Image, and # 6 Boleo are the three runners in this field to have visited the Winner's Circle twice in their career.
An Khe Pass missed victory by just a nose last time out at this class level. Mirror Image has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last six races at this class level. Mirror Image is the only runner in this contest with a prior Win over a Fast dirt track.
Pick One could benefit from the return to one turn racing. Boleo could get a nice pace pressing trip from the outside post. Twice as Fast looked sharp while winning his debut last time out. At Twilight Time is on the ticket because everyone else in this field is.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 The Incident (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 2 A Lucky Carry (ML 3-1)
# 3 Bridal Arch (ML 6-1)
# 7 Beau Rocks (ML 4-1)
The Incident Took the Place at this class level last time out, and has been showing steady improvement in each of her three prior career starts. A Lucky Carry has proven to be competitive at this class level, by may be settling for too many minor awards. Bridal Arch could improve with the stretch out. Beau Rocks took the Show at this class level (behind The Incident) last time out.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Misty Bay (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Unbroken Code (ML 3-1)
# 4 Bishops of Compton (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Misty Bay and Bishops of Compton filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta last time out. Unbroken Code would be a single in this leg if I had more faith in her ability to hold her form as she tries two turn racing for the first time.
RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Mi Bouchon (ML 9-2)
B's
# 6 Nightime Olympics (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Beaumarchais (ML 6-1)
# 4 Mr Kerry Hara (ML 7-2)
# 5 You Play the Bench (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Elegant Tanner (ML 3-1)
Mi Bouchon was within a length of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out, and should benefit from the freshening. Nightime Olympics missed victory by just a head at this class level last time out.
Beaumarchais could be speed on the rail. Mr Kerry Hara has proven competitive at this class level, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. You Play the Bench is undefeated in three career starts, and may be able to handle the class rise today.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2X - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Sooner Time (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 5 Whyugottabesomean (ML 3-1)
# 7 Newcomb (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Ballerina Headline (ML 4-1)
# 8 Hurricaine Callie (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Midnight Seeker (ML 9-2)
Sooner Time has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two starts. All four of Sooner Time's career Wins have come over a Fast dirt track.
Whyugottabesomean was right behind Sooner Time at the wire last time out. Newcomb could move up with the class drop.
Ballerina Headline crossed the wire in front of Sooner Time last time out, but the lesser distance today may work to Sooner Time's advantage. Hurricaine Callie fits well at this class level, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.
RACE 9 - The Oak Tree Sprint $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Algenon (ML 5-1)
B's
# 6 Kaabraaj (ML 9-2)
# 8 Quick and Silver (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Rocket Heat (ML 7-2)
# 4 Yahoo Tahoe (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 7 Raised a Secret (ML 8-1)
Algenon has finished in the Trifecta in both of his career starts over this track. Kaabraaj was a Listed Stakes winner in each of his last two starts over a Fast dirt track. Quick and Silver could return to form off the freshening.
Rocket Heat could be the speed of the speed on the rail; but Rocket Heat may have difficulty making the full six furlongs. Yahoo Tahoe could be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket. While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected. I think it's also safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so I should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 1,3 with 5 with 6 with 7 with 4 with 5 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 1,3,4,6 with 5 with 2,4,6 with 6,7 with 4,5,7 with 5,6,8 $43.20
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 2,5 with 5 with 6 with 7 with 4 with 5 $0.40
$0.20 P6: 1,3 with 2,3,7 with 6 with 7 with 4 with 5 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 1,3 with 5 with 6 with 1,4,5 with 4 with 5 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 1,3 with 5 with 6 with 7 with 3,8 with 5 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 1,3 with 5 with 6 with 7 with 4 with 1,4 $0.80
Total: $49.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 6:18 EDT / 3:18 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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