Sunday, July 16, 2017

7/16/17 Sacramento Late Pick Four - Preview

As promised in Saturday's preview, I'm sticking with the shorter sequence today, forgoing The Gold Rush Pick Six so that the jackpot will have an opportunity to build.  And that's all I have today by way of introduction.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Sacramento.

RACE 5 - Clm $8k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Tuscan Warrior (Morning Line 9-2)

B’s

# 1 Satin Ruler (ML 5-2)
# 2 Silver Jester (ML 2-1)

C's

# 3 Pepper and Salt (ML 5-1)
# 5 Mystical (ML 12-1)

# 6 Union Wine (ML 4-1)

Tuscan Warrior graduated with ease last time out in his first ever try on a Fast dirt track.  It's extremely unlikely that Tuscan Warrior will get away with such soft fractions again today; but it's quite likely that Tuscan Warrior has a preference for the surface that will allow him to score again even with the class rise.

Satin Ruler could be speed on the rail, and Trainer Victor Trujillo has had better than average success with runners going first off the claim.  Silver Jester could move up with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, as this field in my opinion lacks any real good matches for the conditions, and thus could devolve into anyone's race.

RACE 6 - Clm $8k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Barton Lodge (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Giant Mark (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 2 Bountiful Desert (ML 5-2)
# 6 Hock (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Barton Lodge (Ire) has finished in the Exacta in all four of his non-turf races; indeed, remove the grass races from his Past Performances and Barton Lodge shows a phenomenal form for this class level.  If Barton Lodge can carry his form with him onto the dirt track, then he will be tough to beat here.

Giant Mark has finished in the Exacta in each of his two prior starts on a Fast dirt track, including a Win last time out over at Pleasanton.  Bountiful Desert could benefit from the class drop.  Hock has demonstrated good form in the past when competing on a Fast dirt track, and he seems well meant here.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Cash Limit (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Cascadia (ML 5-1)
# 8 Artie B Good (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Let's Play Ball (ML 12-1)
# 7 Alive and Well (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 5 Wasco (ML 9-2)

Cash Limit took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out.  Cascadia and Artie B Good are two first time starters that could do well in a field lacking a true standout.  Let's Play Ball took the Show at this class level in his debut two starts back, albeit for a different barn.  Alive and Well ran reasonably well in his debut last time out, once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was in it.

RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k N2Y - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 No Problem (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Outlook (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Boldly True (ML 3-1)
# 6 Small Town Shuffle (ML 15-1)
# 7 Midvale Magic (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 1 In Control (ML 9-2) and # 5 Pocket Prince (ML 10-1)

This contest is for three year olds and upward that have not won two races in 2017, excluding Maiden races, and Claiming, and Starter contests for $5k or less.

No Problem is getting some significant class relief here, which should allow him to be much closer to the early pace than he has been of late; a huge benefit to a runner who looks to be the one that will be running best in the home stretch.

Outlook closed well in victory last time out, and looks like he will maintain his form with the class rise.  Boldly True could do well with the change of surface.  Small Town Shuffle is on the ticket because everyone else is.  Midvale Magic could do well off the freshening.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 4,7 with 6 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 2,4,6,7 with 3,6,8 with 2,4 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 4,7 with 6 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,7 with 4,7 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,7 with 6 with 3,6,7 $3.00

Total: $46.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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