"If no one ever took risks, Michelangelo would have painted the Sistine Floor." - Neil Simon
The Everett Nevin Stakes, a five and a half furlong sprint for California bred or California sired juveniles, is the featured race on Saturday's card at the Alameda County Fair. And telling you that is pretty much all I have by way of introduction; so let's get to it, as I take another run at The Gold Rush Pick Six at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $3.2k N1Y - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Knoll (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Tanned Mistress (ML 8-1)
# 2 Deep Thought (ML 10-1)
# 3 Raja's Rose (ML 5-1)
# 5 Contessa (ML 5-2)
Scratch # 4 Warrens Lil Margie (ML 2-1)
This contest is for fillies and mares three year olds and upward that have not won a race in 2017, excluding Maiden races, and Claiming, and Starter contests for $2.5k or less.
Knoll's lifetime record of two Wins in twenty-nine tries isn't exactly what you look for in a big ticket single. But, with the scratch of Warrens Lil Margie, Knoll is clearly (in my humble opinion) the most talented runner in this field, and a repeat of any of her most recent efforts should put her in the Winner's Circle today.
The "C" Selections are everyone else. As I said, two-for-twenty-nine doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. If Knoll fails to fire today, at least this play won't suffer a first round knockout.
RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Omdurman (ML 5-1)
# 6 Tremors Code (ML 4-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 3 Tough Timber (ML 7-2)
Omdurman took the Show at this class level last time out. Tremors Code took the Show against classier foes last time out. Tough Timber has finished in the Exacta in all three of his career starts on a Fast dirt track.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Little Doe (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Boot Scootin' Kid (ML 10-1)
# 5 Assemble (ML 3-1)
# 7 Angelofmontgomery (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Truth Matters (ML 7-2)
These are juveniles, with Little Doe and Boot Scootin' Kid being the only two runners in the field with any prior racing experience. Assemble and Angelofmontgomery are both trained by Blaine Wright, who tends to do reasonably well with first time starters.
RACE 8 - [S] The Everett Nevin $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Schulace (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Jacks Masterpiece (ML 7-2)
# 3 Walk On Water (ML 10-1)
# 4 Kimberlea (ML 3-1)
C's
None
Schulace was an easy winner in his debut at Santa Anita last time out. Jacks Masterpiece won by as many as he wanted over this track in his initial try last time out.
Walk on Water graduated while making the jump up in class from Maiden Claiming to Maiden Non-Claiming last time out in his first start after being claimed by Trainer Steve Miyadi. Kimberlea, the only filly in this field, was another that won in her debut last time out, and she just might be the quickest of the bunch.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Pavelski (ML 2-1)
# 2 Alleycat (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 5 Lucky Patrick (ML 3-1)
Pavelski could improve with the switch back to dirt. Alleycat took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit on the turf. Lucky Patrick could be quickest in a field that looks a little light on early speed.
RACE 10 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight and Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Moscato Girl (ML 9-2)
B's
# 4 Blushing Bug (ML 10-1)
# 5 Hal's Buddy (ML 4-1)
# 7 Breakaway Dixie (ML 7-2)
# 9 Californiasunshine (ML 8-1)
C's
None
Moscato Girl fits well here on class, and has run well in the past on Fast dirt tracks. Blushing Bug appears to be in top form, but Blushing Bug may not have enough pace in this field to chase.
Hal's Buddy took the Place at this class level last time out, with Breakaway Dixie taking the Show behind her. Californiasunshine was a winner at this class level two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket. While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected. I also think it's safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket; so I should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 6 with 2,6 with 3 with 8 with 1,2 with 3 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 6 with 2,6 with 3,4,5,7 with 1,3,4,8 with 1,2 with 3,4,5,7,9 $64.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,3,5 with 2,6 with 3 with 8 with 1,2 with 3 $3.20
$0.20 P6: 6 with 3 with 3 with 8 with 1,2 with 3 $0.40
$0.20 P6: 6 with 2,6 with 3 with 8 with 5 with 3 $0.40
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 6:46 EDT / 3:46 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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