And so we come to the final weekend in July, as well as the final weekend for racing this year in the state capitol. As the Jackpot Pick Six pool has passed the $10k mark, I think this is a good time for me to jump in. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Gold Rush Pick Six at Sacramento.
RACE 4 - (F) Md $8k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Nang Noi (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 5 Bulkan (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Omigata (ML 2-1)
# 2 Golden Bubbles (ML 5-2)
# 3 Bella Ronski (ML 9-2)
# 4 Monarca's Journey (ML 10-1)
Nang Noi could improve with the stretch out, and she ran well enough last time out to suggest that she can handle the rise in class. Bulkan took the Show at this class level last time out. The "C" Selections are everyone else. With the exception of Bulkan, none of the runners in this field made it into the Trifecta last time out; and none of these runners in their career (or, in the case of Bella Ronski, in her last ten races at least) has left the gate as the betting Favorite. So none of these runners has ever been well regarded by the public, and (with very few exceptions) none have ever run as if to show that the punters were wrong in their collective evaluation. So this one could be a real chaos race; and if your budget can stand it, you may want to give serious consideration to punching the "ALL" button.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $16k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Aloha Spirit (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Equites (ML 5-2)
# 2 Kolocha (ML 4-1)
# 3 Reva Bella (ML 5-1)
# 5 C C the Bartender (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 6 Weltheon (ML 8-1)
Aloha Spirit looks to be quickest in this field, and Trainer Steve Sherman tends to do well when bringing a runner back from an extended vacation. As with the previous contest, I'm using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections. Aloha Spirit's speed should allow her to take this field from gate to wire; but if Aloha Spirit can't hold on until the finish, then this in my opinion becomes anyone's race; as you again have a field where none of the runners finished in the money last time out; and (with the exception of Equites in her debut) none were ever supported well enough at the windows to be the Post Time Favorite in any of their prior contests.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Melinda's Girl (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Intwo Mypossession (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Candy Pink (ML 5-1)
# 4 Ronnie's Girl (ML 9-2)
# 5 Grape Juice (ML 6-1)
# 6 Truly Ponti (ML 7-2)
Melinda's Girl took the Show at this class level last time out. Intwo Mypossession could improve with the shortened distance. Candy Pink could be speed on the rail.
Ronnie's Girl has been working well for her 2017 debut. Grape Juice and Truly Ponti are two that could move up with the class drop.
RACE 7 - Clm $10k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Betting McCann Can (ML 2-1)
# 5 Van Lingle Mungo (ML 7-2)
B’s
None
C's
None
Scratch # 2 The Dandy Man Can (ML 6-1)
Betting McCann Can defeated more expensive stock two starts back. Van Lingle Mungo won at this price two starts back, and missed by just a length of making it two in a row last time out. These two in my opinion appear to be head and shoulders above the rest of this field; so if anyone other than these two should win this race, then this pick six play will lose.
RACE 8 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Baroque (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Italian Fling (ML 5-1)
# 2 Black Sona (ML 2-1)
# 4 Native Chieftain (ML 3-1)
# 5 Awe (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Note for future reference that this contest is for fillies and mares which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and only one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less. For the record, # 2 Black Sona and # 3 Baroque are the only runner in this field to have visited the Winner's Circle more than once in their career.
Baroque has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts. The "B" Selections are everyone else, as I'll be using the "ALL" button on the big ticket for this leg. In my opinion this is a very competitive field, with each runner having demonstrated the ability to contend at this class level. Gazing upon the listed odds above, it would appear that whoever is setting the Morning Line agrees, as no runner is priced higher than 5-1.
RACE 9 - Clm $3.2k N1Y - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Lucky Mark (ML 5-2)
# 5 Speed Saver (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 West a While (ML 5-1)
# 4 Swiss Game (ML 4-1)
# 7 Our Maserati (ML 20-1)
C's
None
This contest is for three year olds and upward that have not won a race in 2017, excluding Maiden races, and Claiming, and Starter contests for $2.5k or less.
Lucky Mark goes second off the claim for Trainer Rene Amescua, who tends to do well with such. Speed Saver could move up with the cut back in distance. West a While took the Show at this class level last time out.
Swiss Game may be the quickest in this field. Our Maserati has been working well for his return after an extended layoff.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket. While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected. I also think it's safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket; so I should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 6 with 4 with 3 with 3,5 with 3 with 2,5 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,6 with 4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with ALL with 2,3,4,5,7 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,3,4 with 4 with 3 with 3,5 with 3 with 2,5 $3.20
$0.20 P6: 6 with 1,2,3,5 with 3 with 3,5 with 3 with 2,5 $3.20
$0.20 P6: 6 with 4 with 1,4,5,6 with 3,5 with 3 with 2,5 $3.20
Total: $53.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 6:17 EDT / 3:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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