"When we give cheerfully and accept gratefully, everyone is blessed." - Maya Angelou
Season's Greetings, one and all! Hopefully this holiday season finds you all well, full of comfort and joy. My current plan is to spend the coming cold Winter months playing the ponies at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky; which, for those of you who may not know, is now owned Churchill Downs Inc, having been purchased from Hard Rock International, who back in April had bought the joint from JACK Entertainment; thus giving the racetrack three owners in one calendar year.
Some basics: The track at Turfway Park is synthetic (Tapeta, to be exact) and the maximum distance for a one turn race is six and a half furlongs. There is no turf course. Maiden Special Weights have a purse of $46k. Takeout on the Single 6 and the 50-cent Pick 5 is 15%; takeout on the 50-cent Pick 4 is 14%. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Lucky Lookin (Morning Line 12-1)
B’s
# 2 Icy Street (ML 5-1)
# 12 Lil Pistola (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Due Time (ML 20-1)
# 3 Run This Town (ML 10-1)
# 4 It's Game Time (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mr. Sarcastic (ML 8-1)
# 6 Cape Crush (ML 12-1)
# 7 Darkness Beauty (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sunday Scaries (ML 3-1)
# 9 Sergeant McNerney (ML 12-1)
# 11 Seventy Seventycat (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 1A Candy Kingdom (ML 20-1)
Lucky Lookin goes first off the claim for Trainer Ron Brown, who tends to do well with such. Icy Street wanted no part of the dirt track at Churchill Downs last time out; but perhaps Icy Street's turf form will carry over to the Tapeta. If nothing else, the class relief that Icy Street is getting here makes him one to consider.
Lil Pistola is one-for-fifty-eight lifetime; generally not a record that garners a spot on the main ticket. But Lil Pistola just missed by half a length last time of two-for-fifty-eight lifetime; and that last time out was over this track, Lil Pistola's first ever race over a synthetic surface. So maybe Tapeta is what Lil Pistola has been waiting for his whole career. Then again, maybe not; but if the 10-1 Morning Line holds true, it's certainly a price which makes it worth finding out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Flirty (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Lady Leah (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sour Peach (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Cook Memories (ML 8-1)
# 3 Grams Future (ML 15-1)
# 4 Majestic Bold (ML 5-1)
# 6 Patti Patti Patti (ML 6-1)
# 9 Tempestuous Amy (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 7 Secret Trick (ML 6-1)
Flirty could move up with the drop in class. Lady Leah could move up moving from dirt to synthetic. Sour Peach has finished in the Trifecta eight times in her ten attempts over this racetrack. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - ALW N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Hide the Demon (ML 8-1)
B's
# 6 Mojo Man (ML 3-1)
# 8 Infinite (ML 3-1)
# 10 Stay Happy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1A Augie (ML 15-1)
# 2 Extra Medium (ML 12-1)
# 3 Giant Honor (ML 15-1)
# 7 Majestic Valley (ML 20-1)
# 9 Frosted Ice (ML 10-1)
# 11 Two Bit Kid (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Never Even Called (ML 15-1) and # 5 Jimmy Joe (ML 20-1)
Hide the Demon has run well in the past on synthetic surfaces, and Hide the Demon is getting significant class relief here. Mojo Man is another class dropper that has run well previously on the synthetic.
Infinite and Stay Happy are two lightly raced runners moving up in class with trainers whose chargers always merit consideration (Wesley Ward and Tom Drury, respectively). The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $7.5k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 13 My Discreet Secret (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 Happy Peddler (ML 5-1)
# 8 Smarty Artie (ML 7-2)
# 10 Teton Thai (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Tarnish (ML 8-1)
# 3 Miss Jaba (ML 12-1)
# 4 Rathrbluckythngood (ML 4-1)
# 5 Saint Gloria (ML 20-1)
# 6 West Virginia Pam (ML 20-1)
# 7 Sweaty Betty (ML 20-1)
# 9 Gold Ladybug (ML 10-1)
# 12 Cyclone Millie (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 11 Mysterious Lew (ML 20-1) and # 14 Devils Daughter (ML 12-1)
These are juveniles; and none of the ten experienced runners in this field of twelve has ever finished in the Trifecta. So for that reason I made my top pick here My Discreet Secret, as she looks to be the better of the two debut runners (Miss Jaba being the other).
Happy Peddler showed good early speed against more expensive stock in each of her two prior starts. Rathrbluckythngood ran the best race of her five start career in her only prior try on a synthetic surface (Arlington Park).
Smarty Artie is making her second career start after showing nothing in her debut at Woodbine. But Smarty Artie is trained by Wesley Ward, who tends to do well with second time runners. In addition Smarty Artie is taking the blinkers off, another move with which Ward tends to succeed. Finally, that initial contest turned out to be a key race, with the two Exacta finishers (Juxtapose and Onezy's Dream) coming back to win next time out. Add it all up, and Smarty Artie probably still shouldn't be on the main ticket; especially when you consider that she will most likely be over bet. But Smarty Artie ticks off a lot of boxes in a field where most runners don't tick any; so onto the big ticket she goes.
Teton Thai ran very well on the grass last time out; perhaps that form will carry over to the synthetic. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 8 with 4 with 13 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,10,12 with 1,5,8 with 4,6,8,10 with 2,8,10,13 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 8 with 4 with 13 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,3,4,6,9 with 4 with 13 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 1,2,3,7,9,11 with 13 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 4 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,12 $4.00
Total: $87.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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