"If you can find a path with no obstacles, it probably doesn't lead anywhere." - Frank A. Clark
It's Pacific Classic Day in Southern California, and the good people at Del Mar have put together an excellent card featuring five Graded Stakes. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Extra Hope (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Potantico (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kershaw (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Unbroken Star (ML 12-1)
# 2 Respect the Hustle (ML 12-1)
# 4 Take the One O One (ML 8-1)
# 7 Loud Mouth (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 5 El Tigre Terrible (ML 4-1)
Extra Hope is getting significant class relief here, and probably would be a big ticket single were he not coming off an extended layoff, this being Extra Hope's 2020 debut. Potantico and Kershaw filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this track at today's distance last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 10 Laura's Light (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Miss Extra (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 4 Warren's Showtime (ML 6-1)
# 8 Neige Blanche (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Carpe Vinum (ML 15-1)
# 2 California Kook (ML 15-1)
# 5 Aqua Seaform Shame (ML 12-1)
# 7 Red Lark (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Parkour (ML 15-1)
# 11 Guitty (Fr) (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Trickle In (ML 6-1)
Laura's Light, four-for-five lifetime on the grass, appears to be in top form entering this contest. Miss Extra (Fr) and Neige Blanche (Fr) are both making their first career start outside their native France; and, in my opinion, both deserve serious consideration based upon the quality of competition that they each defeated overseas.
Warren's Showtime took the Show behind Laura's Light last time out in the Grade 2 San Clemente; and while Warren's Showtime also finished behind Guitty (Fr) in that contest, I think Warren's Showtime stands the better chance of moving up with the added distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Higher Power (ML 3-1)
B's
# 5 Maximum Security (ML 1-1)
C's
# 1 Midcourt (ML 7-1)
# 3 Mirinaque (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Dark Vader (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sharp Samurai (ML 8-1)
Note sure why, but for whatever reason my Brisnet Past Performances don't list Jason Servis as the previous trainer of Maximum Security. Probably just an oversight; but a rather odd and conspicuous oversight.
Anyway, a strong case could be made that Maximum Security should be the top selection here. Indeed, a strong case could be made that Maximum Security should be a big ticket single here. And later this evening, I may find myself wishing that I had made that case.
I certainly think that the added distance today will help Maximum Security increase his advantage over Midcourt, who was just a nose behind Maximum Security at the wire in the Grade 2 San Diego last time out. But I also think that Higher Power, Show finisher in the aforementioned San Diego, and winner of last year's running of this event, could very much benefit from the stretch out to ten furlongs; so much so that I like Higher Power's chances of winning today more than I like Maximum Security.
So that's how I'm playing this leg of the sequence; two deep on the big ticket, Higher Power over Maximum Security; with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Shadow Sphinx (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Tiberius Mercurius (ML 5-1)
# 3 Ostini (ML 15-1)
# 5 Salvator Mundi (ML 9-2)
# 7 Three Ay Em (ML 8-1)
# 10 Desmond Doss (ML 8-1)
# 13 Navy Armed Guard (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Bold Endeavor (ML 20-1)
# 6 Colosi (ML 15-1)
# 9 Of Good Report (ML 20-1)
# 11 M Town Gem (ML 12-1)
# 12 Kneedeepinsnow (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Southern King (ML 8-1)
Shadow Sphinx was a clear winner last time out in a Starter Optional Claimer at Santa Anita; and Shadow Sphinx has run well in the past over this turf course. Salvator Mundi and Tiberius Mercurius filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.
Ostini is moving up in class after defeating state bred rivals over this turf course last time out; but Ostini has run well in the past against open company. Three Ay Em could move up with a cleaner trip.
Desmond Doss could improve going second off the layoff. Navy Armed Guard ships in from the east and may enjoy being stationed in San Diego. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 10 with 2 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 3,4,8,10 with 2,5 with 2,3,4,5,7,10,13 $84.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,7 with 10 with 2 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,5,7,9,11 with 2 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 10 with 1,3,4,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 10 with 2 with 1,6,9,11,12 $2.50
Total: $94.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:36 EDT / 5:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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