“Creativity is a wild mind and a disciplined eye.” - Dorothy Parker
Hopefully everyone reading this is enjoying their Summer up to this point (or, for those of you in Australia and other points south of the equator, your Winter). Seeking an escape from the heat that has affected so much of the United States, at least vicariously, I'm turning my attention toward the Pacific Northwest, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Emerald Downs.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 30k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Ms Parkside (Morning Line 8-5) is a perfect two-for-two since being claimed away from Trainer Frank Lucarelli and joining the barn of Trainer Justin Evans. Certainly having the meet's leading rider, Jockey Luis Negron, on her back for those two encounters has contributed to Ms Parkside's recent success. But despite the face that Ms Parkside is in top form and relishing her new surroundings, I'm going to leave Ms Parkside off my main ticket today.
My reasoning is that, unless there's a clear price horse that you like in some other leg of the sequence, it makes little economic sense to use both Ms Parkside and the runner who shapes up to be her primary competition in this event, # 3 Our Lyla Grace (ML 3-1) on the same ticket. Yes, this is horse racing and anything can happen; but in my opinion one of those two distaff runners is going to win this race.
So why not use both? Again, if I could settle on a price horses later in this sequence I would use both. But since I can't, using both Ms Parkside and Our Lyla Grace means doubling the cost of my main ticket in the hopes of collecting a payout that may not amount to much.
So having to decided to use only one of that pair on my main ticket, why Our Lyla Grace rather than Ms Parkside? In my opinion, I think today's distance better suits Our Lyla Grace. I also think that Our Lyla Grace holds a recent class edge over Ms Parkside; that is, Our Lyla Grace has been running well of late versus tougher competition than those whom Ms Parkside has been facing. Finally, Ms Parkside strikes me as a need to lead type; that is, if Ms Parkside can't get the early lead, then she can't win. Conversely, Our Lyla Grace has shown that she can win from virtually anywhere on the track.
So for me it'll be Our Lyla Grace solo on my main ticket, with Ms Parkside being used as a backup "C+" Selection.
RACE 8 - The King County Express $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 9 K R Rules (ML 4-1)
These are juveniles; colts and geldings that are just two years old. I would blame no one for punching the ALL button for this contest and just moving on. Personally, I decided to go four deep here on my main ticket, with # 2 Digital Soldier (ML 8-1) my "A" Selection. Digital Soldier, one of three first time starters in this field, impresses me with both his morning workouts and his breeding; and, well, that 8-1 Morning Line is more than just little bit tempting. EDIT - With the scratch of Tax Code in Race 9, I'll now be using main ticket singles in two races. So, there's now no reason to sweat this contest, as I'll now be chickening out and punching the ALL button.
RACE 9 - OC 30k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 10 Tax Code (ML 5-2)
The male version of Race 7 above; and again I've narrowed the field down to two primary contenders; in this case, # 9 Brady Boy (ML 3-1) and # 10 Tax Code (ML 5-2). However, unlike how I approached Race 7, in this leg I have no qualms about using the two top picks on the Morning Line. My reasoning is based upon this event having a larger field than Race 7 (eleven runners versus seven, prior to scratches), which means that there will be more money in the pool being used on other entrants besides this pair. Of course, everything sounds logical prior to the running; so we'll see how it plays out later today. EDIT - And with that, Tax Code has been scratched. So I'll be using Brady Boy solo on my main ticket.
RACE 10 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
Once again I'm going ALL in on my main ticket; which makes the main ticket a hopscotch Daily Double, with singles in non-consecutive races and ALL in the other two events. This contest has the smell of chaos, as none of the entrants was able to finish in the money last time out. I made # 7 Big Galute (ML 4-1) my "A" Selection as Big Galute did finish in the Trifecta in his last two tries at this class level. But, ultimately, I think that this could be anyone's race.
So with all that verbiage aside, here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:
And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 1,7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3 with ALL with 9 with ALL $32.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 9 with 1,7 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 8 with 1,7 $1.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2 with 9 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 1,2,6,7 with 7 $2.00
Total: $40.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:57 EDT / 4:57 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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