Race 4 - # 2 Top Brass (Final Odds 4.70) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Mucho Unusual (2.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Rather Nosy (2.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Possibly Perfect - # 8 Lemoona (4.00) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Affirmed - # 6 Mucho Gusto (1.90) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Tequila Blanco (7.00) - "C" Selection
When playing a Pick Anything (Three, Four, Five, Six) one of the worst things that can happen to your play is that the last horse you drop from your main ticket gets the Win in their particular leg. So in a way I feel somewhat fortunate because, not just one, but rather each of the three "C" Selection victors above were late drops from my primary ticket; for while one wrong decision whether to "use or lose" could lead a player to curse his bad luck, three such decisions are an indication that I simply did not do a good job of handicapping. Trust me, it's much easy to recover psychologically from a loss due to bad decision making than it is from one due to bad luck; though in either case the proper response is:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of 2 / 3 / 3 / 8 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $3,187.64 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, June 16, 2019
6/16/19 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Preview
“Remember: What dad really wants is a nap. Really.” - Dave Barry
Happy Father's Day all! As a Dad's Day gift to everyone, the good people in Arcadia have decided to make Sunday a mandatory payout day for their Jackpot Pick Six, with a pool that opened with a carryover of $1.2 million, and is excepted to close with a dollar amount well in excess of triple that figure. So with that as introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 4 - Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tough But Nice (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Candy Zip (ML 12-1)
# 2 Top Brass (ML 4-1)
# 6 Giddymeister (ML 5-1)
# 7 Puriano (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 American Currency (ML 4-1)
This contest was written as a standard Starter Allowance; so any runner three years old and upward which had started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less either this year or less is eligible to run.
Tough But Nice looks quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win. Best Two Minutes, victorious in a $12.5k Claimer last time out, could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Mucho Unusual (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 5 All Star Cast (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Ladymidtown (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Out of Balance (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ellie Arroway (ML 5-1)
# 4 Posh Holly (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Strike At Dawn (ML 7-2)
# 7 Velvet Queen (ML 8-1)
Mucho Unusual was victorious last time out in the California Cup Oaks, which was also Mucho Unusual's turf debut. Ladymidtown and All Star Cast (Ire) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Look for Ladymidtown early, while All Star Cast projects to be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Tapitha Bonita (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 3 Rather Nosy (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Smiling Rose (ML 5-1)
# 2 Gadot (ML 12-1)
# 4 Starza (ML 5-1)
# 6 Princess Dorian (ML 10-1)
# 7 Convince (ML 3-1)
This contest was written with some imagination, as it's for fillies and mares which have started for a claiming price of $50k or less (okay; so far like a normal Starter Allowance) AND which have never won a race either than Maiden, Claiming, or State Bred Allowance. So stakes winners, open company (non-state bred restricted) allowance winners, and prior Starter Allowance winners are excluded.
Tapitha Bonita, going third off the layoff and getting some significant class relief, could be a single here, for those seeking to either cut the cost of the main ticket in half, or spread deeper in other legs. But I'm including Rather Nosy on my main ticket because I think Rather Nosy could improve off the freshening. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Possibly Perfect $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Mirth (ML 8-1)
# 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Confidentially (ML 12-1)
# 6 Pulpit Rider (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lemoona (ML 7-1)
Scratch # 7 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Pantsonfire won the Grade 3 Astra last time out rather easily. Zaffinah (Ire) could be loose on the lead early in a field that doesn't feature a lot of early speed.
Mirth, making her stakes debut for Trainer Phil D'Amato, seems to fit well with the contenders here. Lynn's Legacy finished in the Trifecta in each of her last two contests, both Graded Stakes. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Affirmed (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Roadster (ML 6-5)
B's
# 4 Kingly (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mucho Gusto (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Visitant (ML 4-1)
# 2 Always Forgiven (ML 12-1)
# 3 Manhattan Up (ML 12-1)
Happy Father's Day all! As a Dad's Day gift to everyone, the good people in Arcadia have decided to make Sunday a mandatory payout day for their Jackpot Pick Six, with a pool that opened with a carryover of $1.2 million, and is excepted to close with a dollar amount well in excess of triple that figure. So with that as introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 4 - Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Tough But Nice (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Candy Zip (ML 12-1)
# 2 Top Brass (ML 4-1)
# 6 Giddymeister (ML 5-1)
# 7 Puriano (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 American Currency (ML 4-1)
This contest was written as a standard Starter Allowance; so any runner three years old and upward which had started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less either this year or less is eligible to run.
Tough But Nice looks quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win. Best Two Minutes, victorious in a $12.5k Claimer last time out, could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Mucho Unusual (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 5 All Star Cast (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Ladymidtown (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Out of Balance (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ellie Arroway (ML 5-1)
# 4 Posh Holly (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Strike At Dawn (ML 7-2)
# 7 Velvet Queen (ML 8-1)
Mucho Unusual was victorious last time out in the California Cup Oaks, which was also Mucho Unusual's turf debut. Ladymidtown and All Star Cast (Ire) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Look for Ladymidtown early, while All Star Cast projects to be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Tapitha Bonita (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 3 Rather Nosy (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Smiling Rose (ML 5-1)
# 2 Gadot (ML 12-1)
# 4 Starza (ML 5-1)
# 6 Princess Dorian (ML 10-1)
# 7 Convince (ML 3-1)
This contest was written with some imagination, as it's for fillies and mares which have started for a claiming price of $50k or less (okay; so far like a normal Starter Allowance) AND which have never won a race either than Maiden, Claiming, or State Bred Allowance. So stakes winners, open company (non-state bred restricted) allowance winners, and prior Starter Allowance winners are excluded.
Tapitha Bonita, going third off the layoff and getting some significant class relief, could be a single here, for those seeking to either cut the cost of the main ticket in half, or spread deeper in other legs. But I'm including Rather Nosy on my main ticket because I think Rather Nosy could improve off the freshening. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Possibly Perfect $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Mirth (ML 8-1)
# 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Confidentially (ML 12-1)
# 6 Pulpit Rider (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lemoona (ML 7-1)
Scratch # 7 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Pantsonfire won the Grade 3 Astra last time out rather easily. Zaffinah (Ire) could be loose on the lead early in a field that doesn't feature a lot of early speed.
Mirth, making her stakes debut for Trainer Phil D'Amato, seems to fit well with the contenders here. Lynn's Legacy finished in the Trifecta in each of her last two contests, both Graded Stakes. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Affirmed (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Roadster (ML 6-5)
B's
# 4 Kingly (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mucho Gusto (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Visitant (ML 4-1)
# 2 Always Forgiven (ML 12-1)
# 3 Manhattan Up (ML 12-1)
Exactly half this field is trained by Bob Baffert; and rather than try to choose from among them, I'll be using all three of those runners on my main ticket, with all others being employed as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Forecheck (ML 5-1)
B's
# 8 Boru (ML 2-1)
# 10 Zorich (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Ohtani (ML 6-1)
# 2 Mongolian Hero (ML 20-1)
# 3 Indy Jones (ML 20-1)
# 2 Mongolian Hero (ML 20-1)
# 3 Indy Jones (ML 20-1)
# 4 King Charlie (ML 30-1)
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 20-1)
# 6 Seven Oxen (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tequila Blanco (ML 4-1)
Forecheck has taken the Show at this class level in both of his two career starts. Boru has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three starts. Zorich took the Show at this class level two starts back. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 4,5 with 3,5,8 with 3,5 with 1,2,4,5 with 4,5,6 with 7,8,10 $86.40
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,6,7 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 7 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 1,2,4,6,7 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 1,2,4,6,7 with 2 with 5 with 7 $1.00
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 3,6,8 with 5 with 7 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 1,2,3 with 7 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 5 with 2 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,11 $1.60
Total: $93.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:55 EDT / 2:55 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 8, 2019
6/8/19 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Woody Stephens - # 8 Hog Creek Hustle (Final Odds 18.90) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Metropolitan - # 3 Mitole (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 8 Bricks and Mortar (0.65*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes - # 7 Sir Winston (10.20) - "C" Selection
With the exception of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan, Saturday was not a good day for my "A" Selections, especially in the first two contests; as # 2 McKinzie (1.65*) got stuck in big city traffic in the Metropolitan; which followed a first leg in which # 9 Mind Control (3.30) became yet one more victim of a New York mugging who discovered that the authorities weren't all that interested in punishing the perpetrators.
Still, I have no one but myself to blame for not having the winner of the main event, as Sir Winston simply ran basically the same race in the Belmont as he had last time out while taking the Place in the Peter Pan; except Sir Winston was much closer to the rail Saturday than he was in that earlier contest, which combined with the added distance to allow him to get up and win the Belmont Stakes.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Belmont Stakes Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,118.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Metropolitan - # 3 Mitole (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 8 Bricks and Mortar (0.65*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes - # 7 Sir Winston (10.20) - "C" Selection
With the exception of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan, Saturday was not a good day for my "A" Selections, especially in the first two contests; as # 2 McKinzie (1.65*) got stuck in big city traffic in the Metropolitan; which followed a first leg in which # 9 Mind Control (3.30) became yet one more victim of a New York mugging who discovered that the authorities weren't all that interested in punishing the perpetrators.
Still, I have no one but myself to blame for not having the winner of the main event, as Sir Winston simply ran basically the same race in the Belmont as he had last time out while taking the Place in the Peter Pan; except Sir Winston was much closer to the rail Saturday than he was in that earlier contest, which combined with the added distance to allow him to get up and win the Belmont Stakes.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Belmont Stakes Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,118.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/8/19 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview
Forty-five years ago today, June 8, 1974, Little Current, who had finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby, became one of what is now eighteen runners to win the Preakness and the Belmont, but not the Triple Crown:
Saturday War of Will, winner of this year's Preakness Stakes after having crossed under the wire eighth in the Derby, will be seeking to join that group in the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes. Needless to say I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - The Woody Stephens (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Mind Control (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Honest Mischief (ML 6-1)
# 4 Complexity (ML 4-1)
# 11 Wendell Fong (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Much Better (ML 5-1)
# 3 Borracho (ML 15-1)
# 5 Landeskog (ML 12-1)
# 6 Nitrous (ML 10-1)
# 7 Strike Silver (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 20-1)
# 10 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
Mind Control should probably be a big ticket single here, a line that I may be repeating later this afternoon. But Mind Control typically does not run his best off a freshening, his victory in his initial contest this year being the one exception. So for that reason, it seemed like a good idea for me to spread a bit here.
Honest Mischief looks to be the one that will be running best late. Complexity, making his 2019 debut, projects to be a pace presence early, and appears well meant here. Wendell Fong won comfortably last time out in a race where he didn't appear to be at his best. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 McKenzie (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Mitole (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Coal Front (ML 6-1)
# 4 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tale of Silence (ML 30-1)
# 6 Promises Fulfilled (ML 12-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Prince Lucky (ML 12-1)
No surprises here as I land on the two shortest prices in the field, as I think these two are clearly better than the rest of the competition. Firenze Fire is one that you might want to consider adding to your main play, as Firenze Fire certainly has an affinity for this main track. But ultimately I decided to play my hand with just McKenzie and Mitole, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 8 Bricks and Mortar (ML 7-5)
B's
# 4 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Olympico (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Channel Maker (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 2 Catcho En Die (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Cat (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bandua (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Epical (ML 15-1)
Bricks and Mortar could possibly be a single here; though I think it's worth considering that Bricks and Mortar's last defeat was also the last time that he competed over this inner turf course.
Qurbaan, a half length behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out, has the talent to win here; though Qurbaan does seem to settle for too many minor awards. Olympico (Fr) was a clear winner over this turf course last time out in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.
Channel Maker is a multiple Grade 1 winner who may need more distance to show his best. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Tax (ML 15-1)
B's
# 9 War of Will (ML 2-1)
# 10 Tacitus (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Joevia (ML 30-1)
# 2 Everfast (ML 12-1)
# 3 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 8-1)
Saturday War of Will, winner of this year's Preakness Stakes after having crossed under the wire eighth in the Derby, will be seeking to join that group in the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes. Needless to say I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - The Woody Stephens (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Mind Control (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Honest Mischief (ML 6-1)
# 4 Complexity (ML 4-1)
# 11 Wendell Fong (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Much Better (ML 5-1)
# 3 Borracho (ML 15-1)
# 5 Landeskog (ML 12-1)
# 6 Nitrous (ML 10-1)
# 7 Strike Silver (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 20-1)
# 10 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
Mind Control should probably be a big ticket single here, a line that I may be repeating later this afternoon. But Mind Control typically does not run his best off a freshening, his victory in his initial contest this year being the one exception. So for that reason, it seemed like a good idea for me to spread a bit here.
Honest Mischief looks to be the one that will be running best late. Complexity, making his 2019 debut, projects to be a pace presence early, and appears well meant here. Wendell Fong won comfortably last time out in a race where he didn't appear to be at his best. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 McKenzie (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Mitole (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Coal Front (ML 6-1)
# 4 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tale of Silence (ML 30-1)
# 6 Promises Fulfilled (ML 12-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Prince Lucky (ML 12-1)
No surprises here as I land on the two shortest prices in the field, as I think these two are clearly better than the rest of the competition. Firenze Fire is one that you might want to consider adding to your main play, as Firenze Fire certainly has an affinity for this main track. But ultimately I decided to play my hand with just McKenzie and Mitole, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 8 Bricks and Mortar (ML 7-5)
B's
# 4 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Olympico (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Channel Maker (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 2 Catcho En Die (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Cat (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bandua (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Epical (ML 15-1)
Bricks and Mortar could possibly be a single here; though I think it's worth considering that Bricks and Mortar's last defeat was also the last time that he competed over this inner turf course.
Qurbaan, a half length behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out, has the talent to win here; though Qurbaan does seem to settle for too many minor awards. Olympico (Fr) was a clear winner over this turf course last time out in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.
Channel Maker is a multiple Grade 1 winner who may need more distance to show his best. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Tax (ML 15-1)
B's
# 9 War of Will (ML 2-1)
# 10 Tacitus (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Joevia (ML 30-1)
# 2 Everfast (ML 12-1)
# 3 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bourbon War (ML 12-1)
# 6 Spinoff (ML 15-1)
# 7 Sir Winston (ML 12-1)
# 8 Intrepid Heart (ML 10-1)
If it turns out that Tax just didn't care for the slop in the Kentucky Derby, then Tax should revert to form Saturday as the track will be Fast; and the added distance combined with a better timed run could get him to the line in front of Tacitus.
I didn't much care for War of Will in the Preakness; because while I felt that he was comprised in the Kentucky Derby, I don't think he would have finished significantly better in that contest; and even if you put a line through the Kentucky Derby, you also have to forgive his performance in the Louisiana Derby. But War of Will's Preakness win does prove that this is a horse to be reckoned with.
Tacitus is probably the best horse in this field; though it may be significant that he did not hit the board in his only prior contest over this main track. Or it may not; as it was his debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 8 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,9,11 with 2,3 with 4,7,8,10 with 4,9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 2 with 8 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 8 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 8 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8 $3.50
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:04 EDT / 1:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 1, 2019
6/1/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 King Jack (Final Odds 2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Honeymoon - # 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Maria - # 5 La Force (Ger) (5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Jaccat (3.40) - "A" Selection
In the preview, I mentioned one of the drawbacks of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you're practically guaranteeing that you won't be collecting a large payout if they win. Of course, an even bigger drawback of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you won't be collecting at all if they don't win; and that's what happened Saturday, as # 2 Paradise Woods (0.20*) bobbled at the start, had to wait behind horses until coming out widest in the stretch, and then was a little over a length too late in getting under the wire.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 1 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $373.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Honeymoon - # 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Maria - # 5 La Force (Ger) (5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Jaccat (3.40) - "A" Selection
In the preview, I mentioned one of the drawbacks of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you're practically guaranteeing that you won't be collecting a large payout if they win. Of course, an even bigger drawback of singling a 1-5 shot in your play is that you won't be collecting at all if they don't win; and that's what happened Saturday, as # 2 Paradise Woods (0.20*) bobbled at the start, had to wait behind horses until coming out widest in the stretch, and then was a little over a length too late in getting under the wire.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 1 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $373.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/1/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"If a June night could talk, it would probably boast that it invented romance." - Bern Williams
Welcome to June; which, I am told, is named for Juno, the Roman goddess of love and marriage. That being the case, what better time to run the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes; one of a pair of Graded Stakes that I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Morning Snow (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Moana Luna (ML 12-1)
# 3 Music to My Ears (ML 3-1)
# 4 King Jack (ML 4-1)
# 5 Canadian Luck (ML 8-1)
# 7 On Easy Street (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Dinesen (ML 10-1)
# 8 Alfonso C (ML 50-1)
Morning Snow, Moana Luna, King Jack, and Canadian Luck are the four first time starters in this event (Alfonso C may or may not also be a first time starter, depending upon how you view quarter horse contests). Anyway, in race where the experienced runners are something less than impressive, I've decided to lean heavily on the debut starters. Morning Snow gets the nod as my "A" Selection courtesy of being trained by Bob Baffert, who tends to have his chargers ready to go at first asking.
Music to My Ears and On Easy Street are the two experienced runners that I'll be using. Both have taken the Place at this class level; but Music to My Ears' Place finish was on the turf; while On Easy Street was seven lengths back of the winner when he took the number two spot. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Honeymoon (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hostess (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Seranitsa (ML 6-1)
# 6 Maxim Rate (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Over Emphasize (ML 6-1)
# 4 Holly Hundy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dr Wysong (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Sold It (ML 10-1)
Hostess (GB), Maxim Rate, and Lady Prancealot (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Providencia two starts back; a contest which was run at today's distance of nine furlongs.
Seranitsa is the new shooter in the field, shipping in from the East and moving to the barn of Trainer Neil Drysdale. Seranitsa has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her turf starts, including a Show finish in a Listed Stakes last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Paradise Woods (ML 1-5)
B's
None
C's
Welcome to June; which, I am told, is named for Juno, the Roman goddess of love and marriage. That being the case, what better time to run the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes; one of a pair of Graded Stakes that I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Morning Snow (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Moana Luna (ML 12-1)
# 3 Music to My Ears (ML 3-1)
# 4 King Jack (ML 4-1)
# 5 Canadian Luck (ML 8-1)
# 7 On Easy Street (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Dinesen (ML 10-1)
# 8 Alfonso C (ML 50-1)
Morning Snow, Moana Luna, King Jack, and Canadian Luck are the four first time starters in this event (Alfonso C may or may not also be a first time starter, depending upon how you view quarter horse contests). Anyway, in race where the experienced runners are something less than impressive, I've decided to lean heavily on the debut starters. Morning Snow gets the nod as my "A" Selection courtesy of being trained by Bob Baffert, who tends to have his chargers ready to go at first asking.
Music to My Ears and On Easy Street are the two experienced runners that I'll be using. Both have taken the Place at this class level; but Music to My Ears' Place finish was on the turf; while On Easy Street was seven lengths back of the winner when he took the number two spot. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Honeymoon (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hostess (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Seranitsa (ML 6-1)
# 6 Maxim Rate (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Over Emphasize (ML 6-1)
# 4 Holly Hundy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dr Wysong (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Sold It (ML 10-1)
Hostess (GB), Maxim Rate, and Lady Prancealot (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Providencia two starts back; a contest which was run at today's distance of nine furlongs.
Seranitsa is the new shooter in the field, shipping in from the East and moving to the barn of Trainer Neil Drysdale. Seranitsa has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her turf starts, including a Show finish in a Listed Stakes last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Paradise Woods (ML 1-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Just a Smidge (ML 15-1)
# 3 Exuberance (ML 15-1)
# 4 Tapped (ML 8-1)
# 5 La Force (Ger) (ML 4-1)
Singling a 1-5 shot is a pretty good way to guarantee that you won't be collecting an astronomical payout. Conversely, playing against an obvious standout is a pretty good way to guarantee that you won't be collecting at all. Paradise Woods is obviously the best in this field; and it's really not all that close. Mind you, the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that's the way to bet (thank you, Damon Runyon).
RACE 9 - (F) Md $75k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Jaccat (ML 3-1)
B's
# 5 Apples Arch (ML 7-2)
# 7 Cherished (ML 5-1)
# 10 Pricing (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Stop Analyzing (ML 8-1)
# 2 Mongolian Midnight (ML 20-1)
# 3 Queen of Mean (ML 6-1)
# 6 Tell It Again (ML 10-1)
# 8 Malibu Minx (ML 20-1)
# 13 Champagne Honey (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 4 Acadia Fleet (ML 50-1); # 11 What's Bruin (ML 6-1); # 12 Equal Measure (ML 4-1); and # 14 Fashion Dream (ML 15-1). Bring in # 13 Champagne Honey (ML 15-1).
Jaccat took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track. Apples Arch could improve going second off the layoff. Cherished could move up with the surface switch. Pricing may have moved too soon last time out in her debut, and could benefit from the experience. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 8 with 2 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1,3,6,8 with 2 with 5,7,9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 8 with 2 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,5 with 2 with 9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 8 with 1,3,4,5 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 8 with 2 with 1,2,3,6,8,13 $3.00
Total: $56.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:33 EDT / 3:33 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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