"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." - The Declaration of Independence
Happy Birthday USA! Here's hoping that all Americans, as well as all freedom-loving people everywhere throughout the world, spend the day enjoying life and liberty while pursuing happiness; and an even greater hope that all those in search of freedom shall eventually find it. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Pleasanton.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $8k N3L - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Dreaming About You (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Cimarron (ML 6-1)
# 2 Hardsense (ML 5-1)
# 4 Ride Out the Storm (ML 10-1)
# 6 Be Lifted Up (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Autism's Quest (ML 12-1)
# 5 My Idol (ML 6-1)
# 7 Circulodeganadoras (ML 15-1)
# 9 Sweet Chayane (ML 15-1)
Officially, this is a (F) Clm $8k B, with the conditions allowing for the entry of three year old fillies with more than three career victories. However, since Autism's Quest is the only three year old in the field, and she has only one lifetime Win, this is a field of non-Winners of three lifetime; and therefore I record it as such above.
Dreaming About You took the Show at this approximate class level last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such. Cimarron's two lifetime victories both came over a Fast dirt track.
Hardsense could be the speed of the speed. Ride Out the Storm is trained by Blaine Wright, who tends to do well when moving his runners from turf to dirt.
Be Lifted Up could move up with the drop in class. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - The Oak Tree Sprint $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-5)
B's
# None
C's
# 2 Touched by Autism (ML 7-2)
# 3 Honeymoonz Over (ML 12-1)
# 4 Detangler (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Bear Chum (Aus) (ML 5-2) and # 5 Sparticle (ML 8-1)
Anyportinastorm has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two races. But the more recent of those two was on the grass, while the other was a Graded Stakes around two turns; so I don't consider the two recent defeats to be much of a concern. In his four most recent dirt sprints, all Listed Stakes, Anyportinastorm has three victories by open lengths.
For those looking to spread a bit here, Touched by Autism took the Place in last year's running of this event. But note that Touched by Autism has not run in the three hundred and sixty-six days since that contest. So I'll be going one deep in this leg on the main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Gobsmack (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Whoa Buddy (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ecologist (ML 10-1)
# 3 Tomahawk Tuesday (ML 5-2)
# 4 Country Road (ML 3-1)
# 6 Implicitly (ML 7-2)
# 7 Cartellate (ML 9-2)
C's
None
So one leg after taking a stand with a single, I'm throwing up my hands and going "ALL" in this contest. Most of this field has demonstrated an ability to win over a Fast dirt track. Several in this field faced classier opposition last time out; which, incidentally, begs the question: "If everyone is dropping in class, is anyone dropping in class?" If I wanted to split hairs, I could probably get away with using only four or five. But once you realize that you don't have a handle on a race, it's usually best to just punch the "ALL" button and get on with your life.
RACE 10 - [S] Md $5k - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Rowdyrooster (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Gold N Grand (ML 3-1)
# 2 Blues Rapper (ML 9-2)
# 9 Hold Me Close (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Irish Outlaw (ML 12-1)
# 4 Beausun (ML 6-1)
# 6 Dye Maker (ML 12-1)
# 7 Al Million Bob (ML 8-1)
# 8 California Candy (ML 20-1)
In my copy of the Past Performances, the conditions state that this race was carded for open company; but all nine entrants are California bred. Whether or not this was an error in the Past Performances, or just an incredible coincidence, the bottom line is that this is a race for California bred runners; which is why I placed the [S] designation above, for future reference.
Rowdyrooster took the Show with a higher price tag on his head two starts back, and Rowdyrooster could improve going third off the layoff. Gold N Grand is another who hit the board in a recent start and could move up going third off the layoff.
Blues Rapper was very much over-matched in his one prior start on a Fast dirt track; perhaps Blues Rapper will show more today than he did in that contest.
Hold Me Close is the best runner in this field. But Hold Me Close is oh-for-twenty-two lifetime; so what to do? It's obvious that Hold Me Close is good enough to win at this level; but, as he has shown time and time again, he probably won't. But despite that reality, I just can't bring myself to leave Hold Me Close off the main ticket; because this might be the day that Hold Me Close gets so far in front of the field early that he won't be able to lose no matter how bad he hangs. So Hold Me Close gets slotted in as a "B" Selection, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 6 with 5 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,8 with 6 with ALL with 1,2,5,9 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7,9 with 6 with 5 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,3,4 with 5 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 6 with 5 with 3,4,6,7,8 $2.50
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:41 EDT / 5:41 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment