RACE 3 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Faith Hope Love (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Morning Line Favorite # 5 Alert in Class (ML 7-5) has been scratched.
Yes, we're going to single in the first leg; so if we fail here, then we'll have plenty of time to get a nap in before the big game. Faith Hope Love moves down the class ladder from more expensive open claimers to these conditioned (N2X) runners. Faith Hope Love was victorious in her only prior try on a synthetic surface. Faith Hope Love projects to be speed on the rail; which, while not as desirous on synthetic as it is on dirt, is still a pretty good thing to possess.
RACE 4 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Toruk Makto (ML 8-1)
# 6 Eagle Screams (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
Eagle Screams misses by less than a length of entering this contest with a three race winning streak at today's class level. Since the margins of victory were also close, it's quite possible that one of these that Eagle Screams has defeated recently may turn the tables on him today. But once you think that, you then have to think, "Which One?" Could this be the day that # 2 Argyle Cut (ML 8-1), with a new rider on his back, makes up the two and a half length difference that separated him from Eagle Screams at the wire last time out? Perhaps # 3 Tribal Jewel (ML 3-1) who was only a length behind Eagle Screams last time out, and just a length and a half back three starts back? Perhaps # 4 Skip Tony (ML 7-2) who lost to Eagle Screams by just a neck two starts back? Maybe # 5 Quick and Silver (ML 4-1) who took the Place behind Eagle Screams last time out?
The fact is that Eagle Screams has defeated four of his five opponents in this contest more than once. If you think one them will finally hit the wire in front of Eagle Screams today, then you pretty much have to play all of them, because they are virtually all of equal ability.
Toruk Makto is the new shooter in the group, the only runner in this field that has not recently been defeated by Eagle Screams. Toruk Makto was a winner in his only prior race over this main track. Maybe Toruk Makto turns out to be the worst of the bunch and fails to hit the board today; but he's the one unknown in a race that looks like a replay of a couple that we've just recently viewed; and for that reason, Toruk Makto deserves a spot on our tickets.
RACE 5 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Harry's Here (ML 3-1)
# 7 Lucky Lane (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
Harry's Here is working that magical "seventeenth time's the charm" angle. Somewhat more seriously, Harry's Here looks to be the main speed in this contest; and while that's not as favorable an angle on synthetic as it is on dirt, a horse that's loose on the lead is dangerous on any surface. Harry's Here's chances also look better what you consider that his main competition among the experienced runners in this field is # 1 Koos Is Loose (ML 2-1) who is a lifetime oh-for-fifteen.
Lucky Lane is a first time starter, going for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 15% of such. Generally speaking, a first timer running with a price tag on his head raises a red flag; after all, if there was any chance of this horse having some talent, why would his connections risk losing him right with his very first start? But Lucky Lane is a homebred; that is, the breeder and the current owner are one and the same. That means that the only funds expended by the owner to "obtain" Lucky Lane was the stud fee for Lucky Lane's sire (Lucky J. H.), which in this case was $1.5k. Since the claiming price of $8k here would represent a decent return on that investment, it's reasonable to conclude that Lucky Lane is very well meant in this spot. Lucky Lane has been working well; he gets the services today of Jockey Russell Baze; and the experienced runners here aren't exactly world beaters.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Tough Annie (ML 9-2)
# 2 Wetherbee Lake (ML 5-2)
# 4 Lucky Moment (ML 8-5)
# 5 Wild Delilah (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
The conditions for this one limit it to runners that have not won a race since Oct 15, 2014, OR which have never won four races in their career. All the entrants are under the four career Wins requirement except for Wetherbee Lake, who gets in because her last victory was on Oct 2, 2014, less than two weeks before the cutoff date. Being by far the most prolific winner in this field warrants a spot on our tickets for Wetherbee Lake.
Tough Annie has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Lucky Moment is taking a big drop in class, having faced much more expensive open (non-conditioned) claimers of late. Wild Delilah has finished in the Exacta in three of her four lifetime starts over this main track.
RACE 7 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Intaxication (ML 9-5)
# 4 Come Away Home (ML 8-1)
# 6 Aalsmeer (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Intaxication, two-for-two lifetime over this main track, has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Come Away Home defeated cheaper last time out; but that was an open (non-conditioned) claiming event; so this is very close to a lateral move on the class ladder. Aalsmeer missed winning by a nose at this class level last time out.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Demon Dancer (ML 3-1)
# 3 Alpine Gathering (ML 2-1)
# 5 Land of the Free (ML 8-1)
# 6 The Tom Squad (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Demon Dancer missed by less than two lengths at this class level last time out. Alpine Gathering took the Show at this class level two starts back. Land of the Free has finished in the Exacta in both of his career starts over this main track. The Tom Squad has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last five races that would probably be good enough to get the job done today.
OK, that's the analysis. Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 1 with 1,6 with 5,7 with 1,2,4,5 with 1,4,6 with 2,3,5,6 $38.40
Total: $38.40
Post Time for Race 3 is 3:15 EST / 12:15 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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