2/22/15 Oaklawn Park Pick Four - Preview

As mentioned Friday, someone else harpooned The Great White Whale that is the Golden Pick Six Jackpot at Golden Gate; so we'll give that one at least another week to build back up.  There may be rain today at The Great Race Place in SoCal, so those late afternoon turf races may be moved to the main track; and that's just too big a maybe when you're trying to plan a multi-race sequence.  There almost definitely will be rain in Hot Springs, Arkansas, where they're running the re-scheduled Southwest Stakes; but there's no turf course from which races will be removed, so we already know that everything is going to be run in the dirt (or, more likely, mud).  So with that in mind, let's take a shot at Sunday's Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Cleartap (Morning Line 4-1)

# 9 Sailing Shiksa (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Wildwood Kantharos (ML 10-1)

# 11 Julep (ML 5-1)

C's

None

Sailing Shiksa took the Place at this class level twice as a two year old; this will be her three year old debut.  Sailing Shiksa was up on the lead in both of her prior contests, a trait that should prove useful today.

Cleartap, Wildwood Kantharos, and Julep are all first time starters.  Cleartap is sired by Tapit, whose offspring win approximately 13% of their debuts.  Cleartap also has the best Tomlinson Wet Rating in this field.

Wildwood Kantharos is sired by Kantharos, whose offspring win approximately one quarter of the time at first asking.  Julep is sired by Quality Road, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their initial tries.  Wildwood Kantharos and Julep are in a virtual tie for best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field.

RACE 7 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Almost English (ML 5-1)

B's

# 3 Visionary Ruler (ML 8-1)

# 5 Cowboy Ed (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Almost English won at this class level three starts back, and is two-for-three lifetime when competing on a off track.  Visionary Ruler took the Place at this class level three starts back, and just might be the speed of the speed here.

Cowboy Ed is making a huge class leap, moving up from cheaper conditioned claimers; but he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Cowboy Ed also goes first off the claim for Trainer Paul Holthus, who wins with one third of such.

RACE 8 - The Southwest (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Bayerd (ML 5-1)

# 6 Far Right (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C’s

None

Bayerd, a two-time listed stakes winner, is two-for-two lifetime when competing on a off track.  Far Right, winner of The Smarty Jones last time out, looks to be best in field, but may be disadvantaged here by his late running style.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Swagner (ML 3-1)

# 10 Wit (ML 8-1)

B's

# 2 Pea Shooter Pro (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tax Deduction (ML 10-1)

C's

None

# 11 Yukon Sky (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

Swagner, one of several three year olds in this field, made a nice move forward last time out in his second career start, taking the Place at this class level.  Wit, a six year old gelding, held his form well when moving from turf to dirt.  Wit may appreciate the turnback in distance.

Pea Shooter has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and (with the scratch of Yukon Sky) is in a virtual tie with Tax Deduction for best Tomlinson Wet Rating in this group.  Tax Deduction, like Wit, is an older horse who may appreciate the turnback in distance from his last start.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4:  7,9 with 10 with 1,6 with 7,10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7,9,11 with 3,5,10 with 1,6 with 2,7,9,10 $48.00

Total: $52.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 4:46 EST / 1:46 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo