Tuesday, February 24, 2015

2/24/15 Turf Paradise Pick Five - Preview

Got myself another day away from the office; I suspect these will soon be scarce.  But for now let's enjoy this one, as we set our sights on Arizona and take a shot at the Pick Five at Turf Paradise.

RACE 4 - (F) Clm $8k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Peppermint Gal (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 Galehorn (ML 9-5)

C’s

None

Peppermint Gal won her debut by over three lengths last time out, earning the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field in the process.  Galehorn transfers in from SoCal to the barn of Mike Chambers; note that Chambers wins more than a third of the time runners go for the first time under his tutelage.  The concern is that Galehorn seems to prefer synthetics and grass to real dirt tracks; but the bullet work over this main track on the 17th suggests that this might be about to change.

RACE 5 - ALW N2L - Six and a half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 3 Canducharlie (ML 5-1)

B's

# 5 Intuitive Nature (ML 7-2)
# 6 Bad Behavior (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Canducharlie has finished in the money in all three tries on this main track.  Canducharlie should appreciate the return to real dirt.  Intuitive Nature tries real dirt for the first time; if his turf form holds, he should be right in the mix at the wire.  Bad Behavior won in his first try on this main track last time out after transferring in from SoCal.  The Beyer Speed Figure that Bad Behavior earned while graduating last time out is the best last out figure in this field.  

RACE 6 - (F) Md $5k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Worldly Pirate (ML 2-1)
# 4 My Mom's Carol (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C’s

None

Worldly Pirate and My Mom's Carol have each finished in the money at this class level in each of their last three races.  I expect these two to just duel each other from gate to wire; hopefully they both won't conk out before they cross the line.

RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Angel de Amour (ML 5-2)

B's

# 9 Right Idea (ML 8-1)
# 10 Benergy (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

# 2 Busta Twist (ML 15-1) and # 3 Double Nickel (ML 6-1) have been scratched.  # 11 Gentleman Rick (ML 12-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible list, but # 12 Full Consent (ML 7-2) does.

Angel de Amour has been steadily dropping in class in an attempt to find a level at which he can win.  Angel de Amour took the Place two starts back over this turf course at today's distance against more expensive.

Right Idea has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last two races.  Benergy should appreciate the class relief that he's getting here.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Roxie Hart (ML 4-1)

B's

# 5 Tilted Lady (ML 5-2)
# 6 Just a Love (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

This one looks like it favors someone coming off the pace; if it does, then Roxie Hart looks like the one who will be running best late.  Tilted Lady took the Place against more expensive last time out, while Just a Love took the Show at this level last time out.  The concern for both Tilted Lady and Just a Love is that they may get caught up in the pace burnout and not last until the wire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.50 P5: 5 with 3 with 1,4 with 7 with 8 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 2,5 with 3,5,6 with 1,4 with 7,9,10 with 5,6,8 $54.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 4:27 EST / 1:27 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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