Saturday, November 30, 2019

11/30/19 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

Greetings one and all; and here's hoping that everyone had a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving.  As we continue on with this holiday weekend in the U.S., please take special note that Saturday's card in Oklahoma City has just eight contests; meaning that today's sequence begins with Race 5, rather than the more customary Race 6.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 5 - (F) Md $7.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Flashin the Cash (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 2 Rathmeister (ML 5-2)
# 11 Bizzar Brown (ML 7-2)
# 12 No Relief in Sight (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Electrick County (ML 30-1)
# 3 Pojoaque (ML 50-1)
# 4 Goddess of Wonder (ML 30-1)
# 6 Night's Magic (ML 6-1)
# 7 Trapani (ML 12-1)
# 8 Miss Independent (ML 20-1)

# 9 Data Baby (ML 15-1)
# 10 Gretoouki (ML 30-1)

Note that, per usual, Oklahoma breds cost more; specifically, $2.5k more.  So if you want to claim Oklahoma breds Electrick County or Goddess of Wonder or Bizzar Brown, the cost will be $10k, not $7.5k.  However, if you claim Oklahoma breds Pojoaque or Miss Independent or Data Baby, the price tag is just $7.5k.

Having researched this further, it appears that a requirement for the Oklahoma bred claiming price bonus is not just that the runner be bred in Oklahoma, but also that the sire is an accredited Oklahoma bred stallion.  So what exactly is an accredited Oklahoma-bred stallion?  Well, quoting from Chapter 75 of the Oklahoma Horse Racing Commission Rules of Racing:

"An accredited Oklahoma-Bred  is one that is domiciled in Oklahoma, stands for service in Oklahoma, and is enrolled in the Oklahoma-Bred stallion registry."

So while Pojoaque, for example, is an Oklahoma bred filly, Pojoaque's sire, Temple City, stands at Spendthrift Farm in Kentucky.  Likewise Data Link, the sire of Oklahoma bred Data Baby, stood at Claiborne Farm in Kentucky prior to his retirement from stud duty.  Since neither of those sires were domiciled in Oklahoma, their progeny are not eligible for the claiming price bonus.  So one more mystery in life is solved.

Returning to the mystery of Race 5, Flashin the Cash looks quickest here, and Flashin the Cash should benefit from the class drop.  Rathmeister and Bizzar Brown filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out; though I would not be surprised if they swapped positions today, as I think the cutback in distance favors Bizzar Brown.

No Relief in Sight took the Show at this class level last time out.  No Relief in Sight is also going second off the claim for Trainer Steve Asmussen, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Absaroka (ML 4-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Poppy's Oats (ML 6-1)
# 2 Wild Paint (ML 12-1)
# 3 Georgia Deputy (ML 5-1)
# 4 Yip Yip Kip (ML 12-1)
# 5 Oklahoma Line (ML 4-1)
# 7 Talk Big Money (ML 20-1)

Absaroka was much improved last time out, going two turns for the first time, as he took the Place at this class level behind a next out winner.  Debut runner Wild Paint, like Absaroka, is by 2013 Cigar Mile winner Flat Out; so if you're unsure about singling in this leg, that's one that you could consider.  But as for me I'm going one deep here, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 Gray Hope (ML 7-2)

B's

# 9 Kenai Bob (ML 4-1)
# 10 Forestdungone (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Comedian (ML 3-1)
# 3 Gospel Carlo (ML 30-1)
# 4 Cowboy Pride (ML 30-1)

# 5 Drifting West (ML 7-2)
# 6 Fallstar (ML 10-1)
# 7 Sonic Jet (ML 20-1)
# 8 Yak (ML 30-1)

# 11 Towering Oak (ML 30-1)

Gray Hope, son of Paddy O'Prado, would be much more preferred if this contest was on the turf.  Be that as it may, Gray Hope was successful on this main track last time out, and won by enough to suggest that he can handle the rise in class.

Kenai Bob and Forestdungone filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  If I was looking to save some bankroll, I would be very tempted to drop Kenai Bob from the main ticket, as Kenai Bob seems to settle for too many minor awards.  But tempting as that may be, I ultimately decided to go with Kenai Bob as a "B" Selections, while using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Rose of Malibu (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 1 Inagoodway (ML 7-2)
# 2 Broadway County (ML 20-1)
# 4 Keetonville (ML 15-1)
# 5 Pinup Girl (ML 20-1)
# 6 Sure Thing Sheila (ML 8-1)
# 8 Terra's Angel (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Clever Serve (ML 5-2)

For those who note such things, just three runners in this field are in for a tag: Broadway County and Sure Thing Sheila are up for sale at $40k apiece; while Oklahoma bred Inagoodway will cost you $45k at the claim box.

Rose of Malibu hasn't visited the Winner's Circle in over a year; but Rose of Malibu seems to have a solid class edge over the rest of the field.  Inagoodway could be speed on the rail.  Keetonville was victorious going a mile on the grass; maybe that form will carry over to the main track.

Pinup Girl is making her first career start over this main track; though she seems to have been working well over this surface.  Pinup Girl is a bit of specialist at today's distance, having won three out of her six lifetime tries at a mile, along with two other in the money finishes.

Sure Thing Sheila is the horse for the course in this field, with five Wins and two Place finishes in her eight career races over this main track.  Terra's Angel got under the wire in front of Rose of Malibu at this class level back in July at Lone Star Park; but that was in Rose of Malibu's only career turf start.

That leaves Broadway County; and, well, I can't go "ALL but one" in a leg; so "ALL" it is. 

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 6 with 1 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,11,12 with 6 with 1,9,10 with ALL $42.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 6 with 1 with 7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11 with 7 $4.00

Total: $54.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 9:59 EST / 6:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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