Saturday, January 11, 2020

1/11/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

Looking at the weather forecast for Florence, KY Saturday evening, it appears that there is a definite possibility that the card could be cancelled, due to heavy rains along with strong winds.  And while a cancellation would make this my most profitable play of 2020 so far, let's hope that the weather is not so severe as to prevent the competition from taking place.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Miss Mosaic (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Estill (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Million Tales (ML 4-1)
# 3 Lynda D (ML 20-1)
# 4 Lil Hitchhiker (ML 15-1)

# 5 Lune Rousse (ML 10-1)
# 6 Le Moine (ML 15-1)
# 8 Magic Finish (ML 12-1)
# 9 Complete (ML 8-1)

# 10 Kitten On Call (ML 8-1)

Miss Mosaic took the Place at this class level last time out, and Miss Mosaic could improve with a cleaner trip.  Estill missed graduation by just a head last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Sacred Storm (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Shape of You (ML 10-1)
# 3 Magnetic Spot (ML 5-1)
# 9 Fort Marsh (ML 5-2)

C's

# 4 Grams Future (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mauk's Tuff (ML 8-1)
# 6 Go Stellaire (ML 8-1)
# 7 Dirt Road Princess (ML 10-1)
# 8 She's Got Friends (ML 12-1)


Sacred Storm, winner of each of her last two starts, ran well enough last time out to suggest that she can handle to move up the class ladder.  Shape of You is another that looks capable of handling a rise in class, having taken the Place last time out over this track against a next out winner.  

Magnetic Spot, dropping down a couple of steps on the class ladder, tends to run well on the synthetic.  Fort Marsh disappointed as the Post Time Favorite against classier competition in each of her last two starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - ALW N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 11 Ramsey Solution (ML 1-1)

B's

# 5 Ecru (ML 4-1)
# 10 El Ahijado (ML 4-1)
# 14 Bourbon Traffic (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Moon Launch (ML 15-1)
# 2 Cloud to Ground (ML 15-1)
# 3 Market Garden (ML 50-1)
# 4 Its Yes (ML 30-1)
# 9 Over Protective (ML 15-1)
# 12 Lo's Journey (ML 12-1)
# 13 Ammunition (ML 15-1)


Scratch # 6 Heza Handful (ML 20-1); # 7 Glorious Weekend (ML 30-1); and # 8 Shine On (ML 50-1)

Ramsey Solution graduated on the Churchill Downs turf last time out in his second career start by over a half dozen lengths.  Trainer Wesley Ward tends to do well when placing his last out maiden winners.

Ecru disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, and could improve going third off the freshening.  El Ahijado took the Place at this class level last time out.  Bourbon Traffic ships in from Northern California after having graduated by daylight last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Liner (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Green Garnet (ML 10-1)
# 4 Matzo Bella (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Bay of Fables (ML 12-1)
# 6 Tiz Stella (ML 30-1)
# 7 Sassy Zeeman (ML 20-1)
# 8 Here's to You (ML 30-1)
# 9 Kelly's Agenda (ML 20-1)
# 11 Temperance Road (ML 12-1)
# 12 Templesis (ML 20-1)
# 13 She Got It (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 3 Kitty Zip (ML 4-1); # 10 Bivian B (ML 6-1); and # 14 Spoofy Doo (ML 30-1)

Liner took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.  Green Garnet seemed to wake up late in her last start; perhaps that's a sign that Green Garnet is sitting on a big one.

Matzo Bella, moving from the barn of Trainer Jason Servis to make her first start for Trainer Mike Maker, is taking a giant tumble down the class ladder; though it is a concern that Matzo Bello seems to settle for too many minor awards, having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in four of her last seven starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 2 with 11 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,2,3,9 with 5,10,11,14 with 1,4,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 2 with 11 with 5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,5,6,7,8 with 11 with 5 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,9,12,13 with 5 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 11 with 2,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 $4.00

Total: $63.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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