"We must accept finite disappointment, but must never lose infinite hope" - Martin Luther King, Jr.
The weather forecaster is predicting another rainy Saturday evening in Florence, KY; perhaps the wet stuff will prove lucky again this week. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Promised Fame (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 6 La Dama (ML 4-1)
# 8 Hope and a Dream (ML 15-1)
# 11 Settle a Score (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Top Mission (ML 4-1)
# 3 Skip and a Hop (ML 8-1)
# 4 Princess Kiah (ML 8-1)
# 5 Nitassweetpea (ML 30-1)
# 7 Nosy Parker (ML 20-1)
# 9 Aiken for Gold (ML 15-1)
# 10 Silky Appeal (ML 10-1)
# 12 Magna Belle (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 1A Green Garnet (ML 7-2) and # 13 Social Circle (ML 3-1)
Promised Fame took the Place at this class level last time out, and Promised Fame's poor performance two starts back can be forgiven due to the filly having to be steadied in the stretch. La Dama took the Show at this class level behind a next out winner last time out.
Hope and a Dream could be quickest here, while Settle a Score looks to be the one that will be running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - Clm $5k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Golden Gift (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Sevenheartswarrior (ML 6-1)
# 11 Man of Blues (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Got the Notion (ML 15-1)
# 3 Double Deringer (ML 12-1)
# 4 True Truffle (ML 15-1)
# 6 Joey B (ML 20-1)
# 7 Not Chopped Liver (ML 8-1)
# 8 Faithful Neighbor (ML 12-1)
# 10 Laflowmylaxbro (ML 8-1)
# 12 Seeyalaterbye (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 9 Rio Seco (ML 5-1)
The Past Performances that I have give this contest as an N2X; but the conditions, which state that this race is restricted to runners which have not won two races since January 18, 2019, make it clear that this is actually an N2Y.
Golden Gift took the Show against higher quality stock last time while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. On paper Golden Gift looks like he should be a big ticket single, based upon his 2019 results against classier competition. But Golden Gift, an eleven year old gelding, is dropping significantly in price off a three month layoff; so it's fair to be concerned about the current form of Golden Gift.
Sevenheartswarrior looks to be the one that will be running best late; while Man of Blues could be quickest earlier. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Bizzee Mischief (ML 7-5)
B’s
# 1 Lady Madison (Ire) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Miss O'Hara (ML 15-1)
# 3 Summer Delivery (ML 5-2)
# 4 Profound Legacy (ML 6-1)
# 6 Picante Caliente (ML 15-1)
# 8 Sky Diety (ML 30-1)
# 9 Sugarsugarsugar (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 5 Even Beat (ML 6-1)
Bizzee Mischief enters this contest with a five race winning streak, the last three coming over this track. Lady Madison (Ire), making her North American debut, is the new shooter in this field; perhaps she can break Bizze Mischief's streak. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $5k N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 At Guard (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Northern Ranger (ML 15-1)
# 2 Buster Brown Boy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Ferlin Husky (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 C Js Billy Byu (ML 30-1)
# 5 Pourmeanotherone (ML 15-1)
# 7 Beach Hut (ML 15-1)
# 9 Richiesonarampage (ML 6-1)
# 10 Primed for Talent (ML 15-1)
# 11 Hardened (ML 8-1)
# 12 Henny Hefner (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Finnegan (Ire) (ML 3-1); but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles (# 13 Supreme Venture (ML 15-1) and # 14 Gifted Justice (ML 6-1)) as they are scratched as well.
It's a six month cutoff for victories; so as long as your runner hasn't won since July 18, 2019, you're good to go (races where the entrant ran with a price tag of $4k or less on their head don't count towards eligibility).
At Guard took the Show at this class level last time out. At Guard has finished in the Trifecta six of the seven times that he has competed on the track.
Northern Ranger may have needed that last race, his first off a half-year layoff. Buster Brown Boy is three-for-five lifetime over this track. Ferlin Husky showed good early speed last time out against classier competition. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 5 with 7 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,11 with 2,5,11 with 1,7 with 1,2,6,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,7,9,10,12 with 5 with 7 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,10,12 with 7 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 7 with 4,5,7,9,10,11,12 $3.50
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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