Christmas Day was exactly one month ago; but for those who are dreaming of a white January 25, it looks like snow showers are in the forecast this evening in Florence, Kentucky. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - Clm $5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Spectacularxchange (Morning Line 8-1)
B’s
# 6 All Hands On Deck (ML 7-2)
# 7 Colombiano (ML 7-2)
# 9 Gray Donovan (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Cruz Diez (ML 6-1)
# 2 E Z Man Band (ML 15-1)
# 3 Senor Wilbur (ML 20-1)
# 4 Pleasant Sunrise (ML 30-1)
# 5 Valid Storm (ML 12-1)
# 10 Kielbasa (ML 20-1)
# 11 One Thirty Nine (ML 12-1)
# 12 Friend Zone (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Nautical Legacy (ML 15-1) and # 14 Obtained (ML 5-1)
Spectacularxchange took the Place at this class level last time out, and Spectacularxchange could be the one running best late. All Hands On Deck moves up a step on the class ladder after easily defeating N2L company last time out. All Hands On Deck is another that could be mowing them down in the stretch.
Colombiano took the Show at this class level last time out. Gray Donovan took the Place at this class level last time out; but a concern with Gray Donovan is that he may get caught up in the pace chase early and not have enough left for the drive. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Sour Peach (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Abogada (ML 15-1)
# 7 Nook (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Air Turbulence (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sweet Rock (ML 30-1)
# 6 Secret Town (ML 8-1)
# 8 Jewelisa (ML 12-1)
# 9 Miss Frank E (ML 20-1)
# 10 Sperling (ML 6-1)
# 11 Prom Theme (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 1 Holy Cookie (ML 9-2)
The Past Performances that I have give this contest as an N2X; but the conditions, which state that this race is restricted to runners which have not won two races since January 25, 2019, make it clear that this is actually an N2Y. Note also that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count; which why Nook, winner of two in just the past two months, is eligible to run here.
Sour Peach took the Show against open (non-restricted) claimers last time out over this track. Abogada, shipping in from Mahoning Valley, appears to be in top form as she goes third off the layoff. Abogada, while making her debut at Turfway Park, has run well in the past over the synthetic surface at Woodbine.
Nook won by as many as she wanted to in her first try over this track last time out, and Nook looks like the one that will be leading the field early. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Enchanting Kitten / # 1A Speedy Solution (ML 7-5)
B's
# 11 Screenwriter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Time Warp (ML 12-1)
# 3 Centerfold Angel (ML 30-1)
# 4 Macabre (ML 5-1)
# 5 C J S Suzie Byu (ML 30-1)
# 8 Loving Moment (ML 5-1)
# 9 Silent Surprise (ML 12-1)
# 10 She's Hot Today (ML 12-1)
# 12 Malibu Party (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Genevieve's Z Va (ML 30-1) and # 7 Ascender (ML 20-1)
With the above scratches, it looks like Speed Solution, trained by Wesley Ward, will draw in off the Also Eligible List; thus joining Enchanting Kitten, trained by Mike Maker, in a two-for-one special, as both runners are owned by Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey. Both Enchanting Kitten and Speedy Solution look quite capable of winning here.
Screenwriter is returning after a nearly nine month absence, and shows zero public works; because, you know, Kentucky. Be that as it may, Trainer Tom Drury tends to do well with those returning from an extended leave, and Screenwriter in best form can certainly contend at this class level. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of field.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 B Deb's Fortune (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 2 Arian Rae (ML 3-1)
# 3 New Appeal (ML 5-1)
# 8 I Admire You (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Honor Bar (ML 30-1)
# 5 Miss Holiday (Arg) (ML 50-1)
# 6 Portrait of Emma (ML 10-1)
# 7 Royal Knightowl (ML 15-1)
# 9 E Z Bonus (ML 30-1)
# 11 My Aunt Tillie (ML 5-1)
# 12 My Lady Dowry (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Boots n' Battle (ML 4-1), as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Lady Rubi (ML 30-1) and # 14 Promised Fame (ML 12-1)
B Deb's Fortune has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two races. Arian Rae could move up with the drop in class. New Appeal took the Place at this class level two starts back.
I Admire You takes a step up the class ladder after winning an N2L by daylight over this track last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 1 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7,8,9 with 3,5,7 with 1,11 with 2,3,8,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,10,11,12 with 3 with 1 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,4,6,8,9,10,11 with 1 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,12 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1 with 4,5,6,7,9,11,12 $3.50
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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