10/25/22 Presque Isle Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

“First, I prepare.  Then I have faith.” - Joe Namath

Here we are, less than two weeks to go before the Breeders' Cup; so let's use the time to see if I can pad my bankroll with a little midweek action.  And it seems appropriate enough to be playing a synthetic track today; as it was on this day, October 25, 2008, that Curlin failed as the Post Time Favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as Raven's Pass emerged victorious in the contest held over the then Pro Ride main track at Santa Anita.  So with all that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Presque Isle Downs.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 25k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 He's a Mess (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Cool Comedian (ML 9-2)

# 4 Jen's Song (ML 10-1)

# 9 Robby's Ransom (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Extrasexybigdaddee (ML 5-1)
# 3 Rio Abajo (ML 7-2)

# 5 Dr. Steve (ML 3-1)
# 6 Shakin It Up Larry (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 7 Jo Jo Hans (ML 10-1)

For those who note such things, Rio Abajo is the only entrant in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $25k price tag on his head.

I'll be honest, this is a tough one; and those so inclined should feel no shame in simply buying this race, punching the "ALL" button, and moving on.  I chose to split the baby, so to speak, by using half the field on my main ticket.

He's a Mess won over this main track under these conditions last time out.  Of the four that I'm using, He's a Mess is the only one with reasonable expectations of being up among the leaders early.  The other three that I'm using on my main ticket are those that I'm predicting will be coming on strong late, as the early pace looks like it will be contentious.  As always, those which have not made it onto my main ticket will be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - OC 40k B - Eight and a Third Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Goodie Goomer (ML 4-1)

B's

# 5 Whiskey Double (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Woodchuck (ML 15-1)
# 4 Heirloom Kitten (ML 8-1)

# 6 Colbaloaf (ML 20-1)

# 7 A Cotswold Village (ML 6-1)

# 9 Carrothers (ML 8-5)

Scratch # 1 Harrow (ML 10-1) and # 3 Franz Josef (ML 10-1)

Those in for a tag in this field are Woodchuck, A Cotswold Village, Goodie Goomer, and Carrothers.

Last time out Goodie Goomer won at this class level, with Whiskey Double, the Post Time Favorite in that contest, taking the Show behind him.  Both runners appear to be in good enough form that I anticipate Goodie Goomer and Whiskey Double will contend for the top prize again today.

I won't be using Carrothers, the Morning Line Favorite, on my main ticket today.  The primary reason is because I see no value in going three deep with a 8-5 Morning Line Favorite; so if I were to use Carrothers on the main ticket, it almost certainly would be as a single.  But in addition, looking at Carrothers form, I suspect that Carrothers would be better served with a freshening rather than another start.  But we'll see.  So for me it's two deep in this leg, with Carrothers joining the others as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 8 - [S] The Mark McDermott 100k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Gordian Knot (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Brentford (ML 20-1)
# 2 Paynted Warrior (ML 5-1)

# 3 Legend of Charlie (ML 10-1)
# 4 Colonel Poppy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Spendolini (ML 15-1)
# 7 Willie Wando (ML 15-1)
# 8 Brumba Waffle Toes (ML 10-1)
# 9 Movisitor (ML 6-1)
# 10 Dawgmentality (ML 4-1)

These are juveniles, so it's quite possible that one or more of these runners has done a considerable amount of growing up since they last competed on the race track.  Be that as it may, I think it's pretty clear that the class of this field is Gordian Knot.  So, as seems appropriate on the anniversary of Curlin losing the BC Classic on the synthetic at Santa Anita, I see this race coming down to the question of whether the horse who is the clear best of the field will take to the synthetic surface.

So in my opinion, if Gordian Knot brings his dirt form to this synthetic main track, then he should win rather easily.  If Gordian Knot doesn't bring his dirt form to this synthetic main track, then my best hope is that he wins rather uneasily.  So it's Gordian Knot solo on the main ticket, with all others in the field being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - Clm $5k N3Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 11 Tapsolution (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 7 Military Drill (ML 6-1)

# 10 Big Chicken Man (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Charlie Charlie (ML 12-1)

# 3 Detangler (ML 10-1)

# 4 Cathmor (ML 8-1)
# 5 Stuck Up (ML 6-1)

# 6 Deceitful Anthony (ML 7-2)
# 8 Worbothor (ML 12-1)
# 9 King Ecliptical (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 2 Topping (ML 15-1)

Tapsolution had a couple of victories sprinting at this approximate class level back in the late stages of Summer.  Military Drill wired the field at this approximate class level last time out, and gives no reason why he can't do that again today.

Big Chicken Man won at this approximate class level two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Note that I've decided to double the cost of my "All A Entries" ticket; we'll see if I stick with that change going forward.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 8 with 8 with 5 with 11 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8,9 with 5,8 with 5 with 7,10,11 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,6 with 8 with 5 with 11 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,4,6,7,9 with 5 with 11 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 11 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 8 with 5 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 $3.50

Total: $26.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 3:45 EDT / 12:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo