“Honoring the sacrifices many have made for our country in the name of freedom and democracy is the very foundation of Veterans Day.” - Charles Rangel
Happy Veterans Day to all in the US, and Remembrance Day to all those living in other parts of the world. For those in the United States who have served or are serving, if you haven't already, be sure to grab some free grubs, as corporate America expresses its appreciation. Friday also marks Opening Day at Del Mar for their Fall / Bing Crosby Meeting. So allow me to turn my sights onto Southern California, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Pentruchio (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Caisson (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Encode (ML 8-1)
# 3 Durante (ML 8-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have won fewer than two races in their career; no exceptions. For some reason, that information is often not including in the running lines of the Past Performances.
As you can see above, I'm changing things up a bit as regards ticket construction. Specifically, I will no longer be using every runner not on the main ticket as a backup "C" Selection. From a handicapping perspective, I feel that using "all others" as "C" Selections has led to some lazy analysis. From a wagering perspective, using fewer "C's" will increase the proportional amount of my bets going towards my best opinions.
The downside of no longer using all others as "C" Selections is that getting three of my "A" Selections home in a Pick Four sequence no longer guarantees that I will collect. And, as everyone who has spent a significant amount of their lives gambling knows, if it can happen, it will happen; so I anticipate being burnt in this scenario in the future. But that's the trade off. As Bobby Fischer used to say, "To get squares you have to give squares." So good luck to me with this adjustment, and we'll see over time how it works out.
RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Big Talker (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 8 Leyas Candy (ML 5-2)
# 10 Lemon Sushi (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Mr. T's Thirsty (ML 12-1)
# 5 Atomic Drop (ML 3-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 Holiday Aroursal (ML 6-1)
Big Talker took the Place at this class level last time out. Leyas Candy took the Place at this class level last time out while navigating just one turn. This will be Leyas Candy first time trying two turn racing.
Lemon Sushi, who graduated last time out, is also routing for the first time. Mr. T's Thirsty was victorious the only prior time that he tried going eight furlongs on a Fast dirt track. Atomic Drop has the talent to win at this level, but Atomic Drop appears to settle for too many minor awards.
RACE 7 - The Let It Ride $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Handy Dandy (ML 7-2)
B's
# 7 Time to Party (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Clutch Hitter (ML 6-1)
# 9 Degree of Risk (ML 12-1)
Handy Dandy, trained by Peter Miller, has finished in the Quinella in all four of his career starts on the Del Mar turf. Time to Party goes first off the claim for Trainer George Papaprodromou, who tends to do well with such.
I decided to fade the co-Morning Line Favorite, Spycatcher. Yes, Spycatcher ran quite well while taking the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. But I think that Spycatcher will be way overused in the sequence Friday, considering that Spycatcher is still a Maiden. So if Spycatcher wins, I lose.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Supercents (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Worthiness (ML 3-1)
# 2 Sugar Sugar (ML 5-2)
# 3 Bali Dancer (ML 10-1)
# 4 Awsome Donna (ML 20-1)
# 5 Tiger's Wish (ML 15-1)
# 6 La Chiquis (ML 15-1)
# 6 La Chiquis (ML 15-1)
# 7 Heaven's Ghost (ML 15-1)
# 8 Vegas Dream (M 6-1)
# 10 Golden Halo (ML 5-1)
# 10 Golden Halo (ML 5-1)
C's
None
I'll be honest; I couldn't figure this one out at all. Putting Supercents (daughter of Goldencents) on top because of the massive class drop Supercents is making. But, honestly, I could make a case for at least six of the runners here that they should be the "A" Selection. So it's everyone into the pool in this leg, as I'll be punching the "ALL" button.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 2 with 9 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 8,9,10 with 2,7 with ALL $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 9 with 2 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,5 with 2 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 1,9 with 9 $1.00
Total: $65.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 5:30 EST / 2:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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