Saturday finds the road to the Kentucky Derby, or, more accurately, the road to the Preakness Stakes, winding its way through the intersection of Albany and Berkeley, California; as the winner of today's running of the El Camino Real Derby will automatically be given an entrance to May's running of the Preakness. So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Tanya Komarova (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 6 Check Out (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Sure Magic (ML 15-1)
# 2 Fairly Lucky (ML 4-1)
# 3 Thunder Woman (ML 15-1)
# 4 Sarah's Smirk (ML 8-1)
# 5 Native Mesquite (ML 8-1)
# 7 Sweet Susan B (ML 8-1)
# 9 My Three Kids (ML 15-1)
# 10 Donveras Cat (ML 30-1)
# 11 California Canter (ML 20-1)
Not making Tanya Komarova a big ticket single is quite possibly a mistake, as Tanya Komarova has twice finished in the Trifecta at this class level; which is two times more than any other runner in this field.
But Check Out has also finished in the Trifecta in each of her last two races; and while those contests were versus maiden claimers, they were open maiden claimers; that is, not restricted to runners that were either California bred or California sired. So I don't think this is all the significant a rise in class for Check Out; and if Check Out closes Saturday as she did two weeks ago, then Check Out just might be the getting her picture taken when this race is over.
RACE 7 - The El Camino Real Derby $100k - Nine Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Kingly (ML 2-1)
B's
# 4 Anothertwistafate (ML 5-2)
# 12 More Ice (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Angelo's Pride (ML 30-1)
# 2 King of Speed (ML 10-1)
# 3 Data Hawk (ML 30-1)
# 5 The Creep (ML 12-1)
# 6 Weekly Call (ML 12-1)
# 8 Rey Coliman (ML 30-1)
# 10 Knight's Cross (ML 20-1)
# 13 Mayor Cobb (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Eagle Song (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 11 Royal Insider (ML 30-1)
For over thirty years the El Camino Real Derby was a Grade 3 event; but that streak ended after its 2017 running, as last year the contest was lowered to the Listed Stakes level. So, to boost up the status of the El Camino Real Derby, The Stronach Group, owners of multiple race tracks, including Golden Gate Fields and Pimlico Race Course (home of the Preakness Stakes) has decided to make the El Camino Real Derby a "Win and You're In" contest for the second jewel of Triple Crown. Note that in order for today's winner to be given that automatic entrance into the Preakness, the horse must be nominated to the Triple Crown. For the record, the runners in this field not nominated to the Triple Crown are: Data Hawk; The Creep; Weekly Call; and Rey Coliman.
Kingly, trained by Bob Baffert, is trying the synthetic for the first time; but if Kingly can handle the surface, then he should do this fine here. Anothertwistafate is undefeated since moving from dirt sprints downstate to synthetic surface routes here.
Eagle Song (Ire) was a two-time winner on the synthetic in his native Ireland. More Ice, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, closed well in the Eddie Logan on the Santa Anita turf course last time out. The backup "C" Selections are, as they are in every race, the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $8k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Indygo Bo (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Street Moxie (ML 9-5)
# 6 Royal Banker (GB) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Journey to Run (ML 6-1)
# 2 Smoked too Many (ML 8-1)
# 3 Sizzling Eddie (ML 5-1)
# 4 Smoke and Burn (ML 15-1)
# 8 Pepper Crown (ML 10-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since November 15, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, then he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the middle of November (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $6.25k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record Journey to Run, Smoked too Many, and Smoke and Burn are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Street Moxie and Indygo Bo were just a head apart at the wire at this class level last time out, while filling out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta. Royal Banker (GB) could be the one running best late.
RACE 9 - Clm $3.2k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Ultra Fame (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Little Jack (ML 4-1)
# 9 Chatterman (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Time to Go Robo (ML 30-1)
# 4 Fair Advantage (ML 15-1)
# 5 Merle (ML 9-2)
# 7 Six Gun Smokin (ML 10-1)
# 10 Vending Machine (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 2 Gone My Way and # 8 Tiz Buff (ML 12-1)
This contest is given as an N2X; but it's really an N2Y, as it's limited to runners which have not won two races in 2018-2019, not counting Maiden, Claiming and Starter Races for $2.5k or less.
Ultra Fame and Chatterman were just a head apart at the wire while filling out the Exacta last time out. Little Jack's career record looks much better if you focus only upon his races over this main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 9 with 7 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 4,9,12 with 5,6,7 with 3,6,9 $27.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11 with 9 with 7 with 3 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,3,5,6,8,10,13 with 7 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,8 with 3 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 9 with 7 with 1,4,5,7,10 $2.50
Total: $41.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:23 EST / 3:23 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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