It's a Tripleheader of Graded Stakes Saturday at Santa Anita, with the Las Virgenes, the Thunder Road, and the San Marcos all on the card. As it's the only one of the trio to fall amongst the final four events on the program, I'll be taking a look at the San Marcos below; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - OC 80k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Much Better (Morning Line 8-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Toothless Wonder (ML 5-1)
# 2 Unbridled's Skye (ML 8-1)
# 3 Spin Lightning (ML 4-1)
# 4 Mr Paytience (ML 8-1)
# 5 Asano (ML 5-1)
# 7 Principe Carlo (ML 5-1)
These are all three year olds; hence the $80k price tag in the conditions; though, for the record, none of these are actually up for sale.
The Bob Baffert trained Much Better, Show finisher in the Grade 3 Sham last month, just looks too classy for this field. If there is a concern with Much Better it would be the addition of blinkers for the first time (in his fifth career start), which suggests that Baffert may still be trying to figure things out with this runner.
If you wanted to go deeper in this leg, you might want to consider either or both of Principe Carlo and Mr Paytience, who could give Much Better trouble on the front end; or, to go in a different direction, Spin Lightning, who could be the one running best late. But for me, Much Better will be going solo on the big ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - The San Marcos (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Chicago Style (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Epical (ML 7-2)
# 7 Dabster (ML 5-1)
# 8 Beach View (ML 5-1)
# 12 Ya Gotta Wanna (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Unapologetic (ML 10-1)
# 2 Roman Rosso (Arg) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sejo (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Lucky Soul (ML 30-1)
# 10 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 12-1)
# 11 India Mantuana (ML 20-1)
# 13 Prince of Arabia (ML 30-1)
Chicago Style looks best here, though Chicago Style's failure to hit the board in his three prior tries over this turf course is a concern. Epical is one that you might consider leaving off your main ticket in order to lower your costs, as Epical could just be cheap speed that will fade in the drive; but as Epical has been hot of late, I'm going to see if his early speed can carry him to the wire.
Dabster is trying the grass for the first time; and typically Trainer Bob Baffert doesn't send one of his runners to the turf unless he's run out of other options. But Dabster has been doing quite well against Graded Stakes company on the main track; and Dabster does have the breeding for the lawn; so I'm going to give Dabster a slot on the big ticket.
Beach View could be the one running best late. Ya Gotta Wanna could improve with the hood being removed. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - Clm $16k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Shifty Dancer (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Crazy Uncle Rick (ML 10-1)
# 5 Saratoga Morning (ML 7-2)
# 9 Honeymoonz Over (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Tanners Pride (ML 4-1)
# 2 Zippy Groom (ML 8-1)
# 4 Neighborhood Bully (ML 15-1)
# 6 Rhettbutler (ML 30-1)
# 7 Candy Zip (ML 15-1)
# 10 Hollywood Dancer (ML 15-1)
Shifty Dancer was a convincing winner in his one prior try sprinting over the main track; and the fact that Shifty Dancer is making just his fourth career start is certainly a solid mark in his favor in a race conditioned by total lifetime victories. The concern with Shifty Dancer is that he is coming off a considerably layoff; but Shifty Dancer did win his career debut, which shows that he can win off just works.
Crazy Uncle Rick is competing above his conditions here, as Crazy Uncle Rick has visited the winner's circle just once in his career. But Crazy Uncle Rick looks quick enough to be forwardly placed early, and his one lifetime Win came at today's distance in rather convincing fashion.
Saratoga Morning is dropping considerably in class. Honeymoonz Over took the Show against more expensive stock last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Scarlet Heat (ML 5-1)
B's
# 3 Dr Wysong (ML 7-2)
# 4 Tip Top Gal (ML 30-1)
# 7 Ruby Bradley (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Lucky Stepper (ML 12-1)
# 2 Winterbreak (ML 20-1)
# 6 Luckiest Lady Ever (ML 20-1)
# 8 Lucky Lately (ML 10-1)
# 9 Shanghai Barbie (ML 12-1)
# 10 Spanish Channel (ML 15-1)
# 11 Settle It (ML 5-1)
# 12 Stylin Ocean (ML 6-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 A Dime for Me (ML 15-1)
Scarlet Heat took the Show charging down the Santa Anita hill at this class level in her debut last time out. Dr Wysong makes her turf debut after taking the Show at this class level over the main track last time out.
Tip Top Gal has proven herself to be quick on the dirt and on the synthetic; and as Tip Top Gal is out of a Royal Anthem broodmare, it's fair to presume that she will do well on the grass. Ruby Bradley, a first time starter for Trainer Phil D'Amato, looks to be well bred for the turf. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 3 with 8 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4,7,8,12 with 3,5,8,9 with 3,4,5,7 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 3 with 8 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,5,6,9,10,11,13 with 8 with 5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1,2,4,6,7,10 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 8 with 1,2,6,8,9,10,11,12 $4.00
Total: $55.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:10 EST / 3:10 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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