“Hard work is a talent. You keep going. You keep fighting. You know how not to quit under pressure.“ - Gary Kasparov
Saturday's featured race is the Grade 2 Buena Vista, a one mile contest on the turf course for older fillies and mares. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Papa Turf (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Tough But Nice (ML 3-1)
# 4 Croissant (ML 12-1)
# 7 Boy Howdy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Market Sentiment (ML 6-1)
# 5 Bargaining (ML 20-1)
# 6 Jimmy the Juice (ML 5-1)
# 8 Burn Me Twice (ML 4-1)
Papa Turf looks to move up with the drop down in class; but a concern with Papa Turf is that he may be spent early, even at the short distance. Tough But Nice is another that can be expected to improve while getting some class relief.
Croissant and Boy Howdy have both finished behind Papa Turf in recent starts; but either or both could be running better than Papa Turf in the drive Saturday. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Buena Vista (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Vasilika (ML 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Take These Chains (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 5-1)
# 4 Fahan Mura (ML 6-1)
# 5 Compelled (ML 12-1)
# 6 Amandine (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 English Dancer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Elysea's World (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Streak of Luck (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 3 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Believe it or not, this was a tough call for me; for as good as Vasilika is, I think Take These Chains (Ire), the shipper from the east, has a shot in this contest. Take These Chains has shown the ability to win on the lead and to come from off the pace; and it's fair to presume that Trainer Brad Cox would not be sending Take These Chains to Southern California if he didn't think that she had a legitimate chance to win.
Ultimately I decided that the likelihood of Take These Chains winning the Buena Vista was insufficient to justify doubling the cost of the big ticket; and Take These Chains is therefore being included with the rest of the field as a backup "C" Selection. However, I may hedge a bit here, a put a bit of a saver Win wager on Take These Chains, just in case.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Curlin Road (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Impression (ML 6-1)
# 2 Kenzou's Rhythm (ML 5-1)
# 3 Holland Road (ML 5-1)
# 5 Bedeviled (ML 8-1)
# 6 Clear the Mine (ML 8-1)
# 7 Pioneerof the West (ML 3-1)
# 8 Little Scotty (ML 12-1)
C's
None
It was just five starts ago that Curlin Road won the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap. Saturday Curlin Road runs with a $20k price tag on his head. Life comes at you fast.
The fact that Curlin Road is dropping so steeply off a layoff is a huge red flag, as well as solid confirmation that Curlin Road is no longer the competitor that he used to be. But the question is, just how much of his old self does Curlin Road have to be to win at this class level?
Anyway, in my opinion, if this contest isn't dominated by Curlin Road, then it becomes anybody's race to win. So rather than outsmarting myself by trying to determine which two or three runners in this field are over-matched, I'm just going "ALL" in on this leg, and moving on.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 K P Pergoliscious (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Stradella Road (ML 4-1)
# 3 Tammy's Window (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Zusha (ML 20-1)
# 4 Lady Mamba (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sutro (ML 8-1)
# 6 Copper Fever (ML 15-1)
# 7 Super Patriot (ML 12-1)
# 9 Mirth (ML 6-1)
# 10 Drift Away (ML 8-1)
# 11 Qafilah (Ire) (ML 10-1)
K P Pergoliscious, Graded Stakes placed in each of her last two races, should benefit from the class relief here. Stardella Road should improve with the return to the lawn. Tammy's Window looks to be the one that will be running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 9 with 4 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,7 with 9 with ALL with 2,3,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,8 with 9 with 4 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 4 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 4 with 1,4,5,6,7,9,10,11 $4.00
Total: $59.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:50 EST / 3:50 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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