1/2/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“It is never too late to be what you might have been.” - George Eliot

Happy not-quite-so New Year everyone.  It's good to be back, after having been knocked offline last week by the Nashville bombing.  By the way, for those in a position to do so, here's how you can help those affected by the Nashville Christmas Day bombing.  And with that, let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Kershaw (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 5 Potantico (ML 8-1)

# 8 Paladar (ML 3-1)

# 10 King Abner (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Fortune Ticket (ML 30-1)
# 2 Bold Endeavor (ML 12-1)

# 3 Tizamagician (ML 7-2)

# 4 Ekklesia (ML 6-1)

# 9 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 7 Kanderel (ML 20-1)

Kershaw, going first off the claim for Trainer Victor Garcia, has run well over the Santa Anita main track in the past, garnering two Wins and six In the Money finishes in eight tries.  Kershaw also took the Show at this class level over this main track two starts back, prior to winning last time out off a class drop.

Potantico took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite; perhaps the cutback in distance will help Potantico move up today.  Paladar was a convincing winner off the bench last time out, in his first start after having been sidelined for over a year.  

King Abner could wake up with the drop in class.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Count Again (ML 2-1)

B's

# 2 Next Shares (ML 4-1)

# 3 Bob and Jackie (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Cleopatra's Strike (ML 15-1)
# 4 Multiplier (ML 12-1)

# 6 Anothertwistafate (ML 5-2)
# 7 Bowie's Hero (ML 6-1)

Keep in mind that this stakes, as well as the Sham which follows, will be run Lasix free; an additional factor for handicappers to consider, as we must now attempt to determine which runners will be most affected by being denied their anti-bleeding medication.

Count Again, winner of the Grade 2 Seabiscuit over the Del Mar grass last time out, looks best here, and perhaps should be a main ticket single.  However, as this will be Count Again's first try over the Santa Anita turf, I though it best to spread a bit here.

Next Shares, Show finisher behind Count Again in the Seabiscuit last time out, won this event back in 2019.  Bob and Jackie, Show finisher in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile last time out, could make every call a winning one.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Life Is Good (ML 2-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Medina Spirit (ML 6-1)
# 2 Waspirant (ML 15-1)
# 3 Parnelli (ML 5-2)
# 4 Uncle Boogie (ML 12-1)

Median Spirit is the "other" Baffert in this contest, being conditioned, like the Morning Line Favorite Life Is Good, by Trainer Bob Baffert.  Waspirant and Parnelli are the only two is this field with Wins going around two turns.  Uncle Boogie is the only runner in here who is Graded Stakes-placed.  So if I decided not to single Life Is Good, I would probably have to go "ALL" in this leg; and I just don't see any way to justify such a decision.  So Life Is Good will be solo on my main ticket, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Mesut (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 5 Brandothebartender (ML 8-1)

# 6 Prodigal Son (ML 20-1)

# 7 Sparky Ville (ML 4-1)

# 10 Encoder (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 El Tigre Terrible (ML 6-1)

# 2 Ghoul (Brz) (ML 6-1)

# 3 Ultimate Bango (ML 5-1)

# 8 Lincoln City (ML 12-1)

# 9 Oiseau de Guerre (ML 15-1)

Mesut took the Place at this class level last time out.  Brandothebartender fits well here on class, and Brandothebartender has run well in the past sprinting on the turf.

Prodigal Son could improve with a return to the turf.  Sparky Ville last victory came with today's rider, Jockey Mike Smith, on his back.  Encoder could move up with the surface switch along with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 5 with 5 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,6,8,10 with 2,3,5 with 5 with 4,5,6,7,10 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,9 with 5 with 5 with 4 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,6,7 with 5 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 1,2,3,4 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 5 with 1,2,3,8,9 $2.50

Total: $40.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EST / 3:05 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo