Half of Saturday's Late Pick Four in Arcadia is comprised of Graded Stakes; creating an interesting balance in the class levels among the runners in each of the four contests. And as I have nothing else to add by way of introduction, let's just get to it; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Airman (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 1 Earls Rock (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Man Friday (ML 20-1)
# 7 North Pole (ML 7-2)
# 10 Enough Nonsense (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Achilleus (ML 15-1)
# 3 Endless Sunset (ML 8-1)
# 5 Daniel's Magic (ML 30-1)
# 8 Ivory Sky (ML 30-1)
# 9 Exalted Joy (ML 15-1)
Airman took the Show behind a next out winner at this class level last time out. Earls Rock (Ire) took the Place in his debut last time out behind a next out winner in his native Ireland.
Man Friday could move up with the surface switch. North Pole is another that could improve by getting on the grass. Note that Man Friday was sired by American Pharoah, while North Pole was sired by American Pharoah's sire, Pioneerof the Nile. Progeny of both American Pharoah and Pioneerof the Nile tend to do well when trying the turf for the first time.
Enough Nonsense did his best running two starts back, which was also Enough Nonsense's only prior start on the lawn. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Canada (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Fighting Mad (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Hard Not to Love (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Proud Emma (ML 6-1)
# 4 Message (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sanenus (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Miss Stormy (ML 8-1)
# 7 Never Be Enough (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Never Be Enough (GB) (ML 12-1)
Hard Not to Love and Fighting Mad, Place and Show finishers (respectively) behind Harvest Moon in the Grade 2 Zenyatta back in September, look to me to be clear best here over the rest of the field. While Hard Not to Love had the better finish in the aforementioned Zenyatta, if was Fighting Mad who did all the heavy lifting in that event; which is why I'm making Fighting Made my top selection here. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The La Cienegas (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Bohemian Bourbon (ML 15-1)
# 2 Charmaine's Mia (ML 15-1)
# 4 Lighthouse (ML 5-2)
# 5 Superstition (ML 6-1)
# 6 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 9-5)
Scratch # 3 Acting Out (No Line) who has been entered to run in Sunday's Kalookan Queen Stakes
Jolie Olimpica (Brz) early or Oleksandra (Aus) late; that's how I see it. It would be much safer to use both Jolie Olimpica and Oleksandra on the main ticket; but I'm of the opinion that Jolie Olimpica has a clear enough edge over Oleksandra to justify using Jolie Olimpica solo in this leg. So that's how I'm going to play it: Jolie Olimpica as a single on the main ticket in this leg, with all others, including Oleksandra, being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Defense Wins (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 3 Uncaptured Hero (ML 4-1)
# 4 Great Power (ML 5-2)
# 5 Astrologer (ML 3-1)
# 6 Bob's Sniper (ML 15-1)
# 9 Dapper (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 Ecologist (ML 12-1)
# 7 Squalotoro (ML 12-1)
# 8 Malakai Moxie (ML 8-1)
# 10 Dynamic Duo (ML 30-1)
Defense Wins goes first off the claim for Trainer Ryan Hanson, who tends to do well with such. Uncaptured Hero is getting some class relief here, and Uncaptured Hero just might be quickest out of the gate.
Great Power took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit for a different barn. Astrologer is making a big class drop off an extended layoff; not a good sign, but Astrologer has been working well for this contest; and Astrologer must be respected on class.
Bob's Sniper took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit for a different trainer. Dapper could improve with the class drop coupled with the surface switch. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 3 with 7 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6,7,10 with 2,3 with 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,9 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,8,9 with 3 with 7 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,5,6,7 with 7 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 7 with 2,7,8,10 $2.00
Total: $40.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:05 EST / 3:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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