Saturday, January 23, 2021

1/23/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging.” - Hank Aaron

The Grade 3 Palos Verdes, a one turn sprint over the main track, is Saturday's featured Race in Arcadia.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Alw 40000s - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Vegas Kitten (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Kiwi's Dream (Aus) (ML 5-2)
# 5 Shadow Sphinx (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Lure Him In (ML 5-1)
# 3 The Stiff (ML 15-1)
# 4 Noble Thought (ML 4-1)
# 7 New Year (ML 30-1)
# 8 Tartini (ML 6-1)
# 9 Kazan (Ire) (ML 12-1)

This is a pretty straight forward Starter Allowance, as far as conditions go, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $40k or less, this year or last, or the year before last, is eligible to run here.  As an added bonus, the winner of this race will receive a free entry into either the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham on May 29, or the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano on June 19.

Vegas Kitten looked sharp in his first try over this turf course earlier this month, and Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well when placing his last out winners.  Kiwi's Dream (Aus) projects to be forwardly placed early; though it is a concern as to whether or not Kiwi's Dream can keep it going for all nine furlongs.

Shadow Sphinx, four-for-eight lifetime over this turf course, goes first off the claim for Trainer Kristin Mulhall, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - The Palos Verdes (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Captain Scotty (ML 8-1)

B's

# 2 Wildman Jack (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ax Man (ML 3-1)
# 8 Kneedeepinsnow (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Pyron (ML 6-1)
# 3 Shooters Shoot (ML 12-1)
# 5 Shashashakemeup (ML 4-1)
# 7 Take the One O One (ML 5-2)

Captain Scotty, trained by Peter Miller, looks well meant here, and Captain Scotty could do well off the freshening.  Wildman Jack should appreciate the surface switch, as well as the class relief.

Ax Man, trained by Bob Baffert, could move up with the cutback in distance.  Kneedeepinsnow always run well over this main track, having finished in the Exacta in each of his four prior career tries.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 8 Escape The City (GB) (ML 8-1)

B's

# 9 Shanghai Truffles (ML 7-2)
# 10 Applecross (Ire) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Hollywood Girl (ML 10-1)
# 2 Cassie Belle (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nu Pi Lambda (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sassyserb (ML 4-1)
# 6 Clearly Gone (ML 6-1)
# 7 Good On Paper (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Noble Hearted (No Line)

Escape The City (GB) makes her North American debut for Trainer Manny Badilla, who tends to do well with such.  Shanghai Truffles could move up with the cutback in distance.

Applecross (Ire) is getting some class relief here.  Applecross is also lightly raced, so she may still be on the improve.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Smart Lola (ML 5-1)

B's

# 5 Best of Show (ML 5-2)
# 9 Shanghai Sunrise (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Backtoflash (ML 30-1)
# 2 Here Comes Ralphie (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nurse Hardbody (ML 5-1)
# 4 Felicidad Legada (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lulu D' Oro (ML 8-1)
# 7 Big Al's Princess (ML 12-1)

Smart Lola and Best of Show each took the Show at this class level in separate contests last time out.  Shanghai Sunrise is dropping in for a tag for the first time.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6 with 2,4,6,8 with 8,9,10 with 5,8,9 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 4 with 8 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,3,5,7 with 8 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 1,2,4,5,6,7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 $3.00

Total: $66.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:28 EST / 3:28 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: