"Anticipation leads the way to victory, and is the spur to conquest." - Nicolas Chamfort
We're just a couple of days away from Jeff Ruby Steaks Day at Turfway Park, with this upcoming Saturday, March 25, being the biggest day of the meet. As a programming note, First Race Post Time at Turfway Park on Saturday is set for 12:45 EDT / 9:45 PDT; yes, that's right, Saturday's is an afternoon card. Also, don't overlook the cross-track all-stake multi-race wager Saturday! Turfway Park is teaming up with Louisiana Fair Grounds to bring us the “Bayou Bluegrass 5” which will have a 50-cent minimum and a 15% takeout. So be sure to be ready Saturday for that wager.
Okay; that's enough about Saturday. Now it's time to live for today, as I attempt to build my bankroll for the upcoming weekend. So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Alw 5000s - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # My Tommy Lee (Morning Line 50-1)
Condition of eligibility for this event is that distaff runners, four years old and upward, had to have been available to be claimed for $5k (or less) since March 10, 2021 in order to enter. Take note of that date. Typically, the date is a year or two years ago, plus a day. So, one would expect the cutoff date for eligibility, that is, the "since" date in the conditions, to be March 22, 2021.
So who benefits from moving the cutoff date back another dozen days? The answer is # 12 My Dark Secret (ML 6-1), as it was in Race 4 at Turfway Park on March 12, 2021, when My Dark Secret (as near as I can tell) last ran for a $5k Claiming price. So a little something to consider when handicapping this contest.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 10 Jungle Cat (ML 4-1)
This contest is carded for fillies and mares, three years old and upward. The Jonathan Wong trained # 8 Autism Community (ML 5-1), making her 2023 debut, is the only three year old in this field. Despite the handicap of facing older competitors for the first time, I like Autism Community's chances here, and have made her a B+ Selection; the hoped-for 5-1 odds being a significant part of that appraisal.
My A Selection in this contest is the Morning Line Favorite, # 11 Sweets Maker (ML 7-2). Normally I'm not a fan of placing the ML Favorite in the top Selection spot just to use several others below them. But I feel it's justified in this leg because of the relatively high odds for the ML Favorite of 7-2. At lower ML odds, say, for example, 2-1, there's rarely value to be gained by using multiple runners in a leg where the ML Favorite is your top pick. But the 7-2 ML odds suggests that the lines maker anticipates money being spread among multiple entrants in the pools. As I agree with that assessment, I have made my Selections follow suit.
RACE 7 - OC 50k B - Six Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 1 Eleven Central (ML 9-2)
Breaking my own rules in this race, as my Selections this leg are clearly anti-value, with the three lowest Morning Line entrants comprising my three main ticket Selections. My excuse? I really expect this race to be the most formful of the sequence, with prices, good prices, getting under the wire first in one or more of the other legs. So rather than fashion a play around getting the prices in the other legs while also correctly choosing which of the three closely matched runners in this race will emerge victorious, I decided to make this leg my safe space. It makes the play more costly; but, if the sequence plays out as I believe that it will, the extra cost will be worth it.
RACE 8 - Md $15k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
For those wondering where I'm expecting to find a big price in this sequence, here it is. My A Selection for this leg is # 8 Bodieful (ML 10-1). Normally Maidens who have already had ten attempts at graduation, half of which were at today's class level, don't find their way onto my main ticket; let alone the top spot. And that's before considering that this is a filly taking on the males.
But I think Bodieful took a significant step forward last time out, and could very well improve off that effort. Specifically, Bodieful won the speed battle last time out versus multiple opponents; and while Bodieful didn't have enough left in the tank after that contest to be the pacesetter, Bodieful was able to hold on for the Place; which made Bodieful the only runner in the front seven at the half mile mark to finish in the Superfecta.
I also think that, despite having faced fellow distaff runners in her more recent races, Bodieful's competition has been at least on par with that of the anticipated male contenders in this event. And the one thing that I am most sure of is that Bodieful will go to Post at a very nice price.
Okay; that's the commentary. Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections:
And here's how those Selections translate into tickets, using a variation of the Crist method:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 11 with 11 with 8 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 8,11 with 8,11 with 5,8 with 8 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,8,11,12 with 8,11 with 3,5,8 with 3,6,7,8 $48.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8,11 with 5,8 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8,11 with 1,3,7 with 5,8 with 8 $6.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 11 with 8 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 2,9 with 8 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 11 with 2,4,6,7 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 11 with 8 with 2,10,11,12 $2.00
Total: $71.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EDT / 4:55 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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