"I tell the kids, somebody’s gotta win, somebody’s gotta lose. Just don’t fight about it. Just try to get better." - Yogi Berra
Saturday brings us a multi-track promotional wager, with two CDI properties, Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, joining forces with a Pick Five featuring a pair of Kentucky Derby preps. So let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Bayou Bluegrass 5 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park.
LEG 1 - Race 9 @ FG - The New Orleans Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 4 Trafalgar (ML 30-1)
I'm fading the Morning Line Favorite in this contest, # 2 Art Collector (Morning Line 8-5), keeping him off my main ticket and slotting him in as a C+ Selection. I'm also fading the second choice on the Morning Line, # 3 West Will Power (ML 2-1), letting him join Art Collector in the C+ ranks.
Look, Art Collector and West Will Power are the two top horses in this field; and if you're going by pure probability, the winner of this race being either Art Collector or West Will Power is certainly well above 50%, most likely above 75%. But I would guess that at least 95% of the tickets in this pool will have either Art Collector or West Will Power on it. Getting home a winner in this leg that is neither Art Collector nor West Will Power would be huge. Unlikely, but huge.
So, heeding to the motto, "Go big or go home" I'm going to single here, with a horse that is neither Art Collector nor West Will Power. Instead, my big ticket single in this opening leg is # 5 Rattle N Roll (ML 10-1). At his best, I believe that Rattle N Roll can compete with the top two contenders here. I also think Rattle N Roll will be helped by the pace shape in this contest. Finally, I think, based off his works over this track earlier this month, that Rattle N Roll is ready to, well, roll.
So I'm swinging for the fences in my first at bat of the day, with Rattle N Roll being my big ticket single in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic.
LEG 2 - Race 11 @ TP - (F) The Bourbonette Oaks $300k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 3 Olympic Prank (ML 20-1)
No real surprises here as I go three deep with the expectation that this event will be formful. The only real question I had here was regarding # 2 Bolivie (Ire) (ML 5-1), making her North American debut. While I have Bolivie on my main ticket (as a B Selection), I may later regret not slotting her higher on the chart. We'll see.
LEG 3 - Race 11 @ FG - (F) The Fair Grounds Oaks (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Unfortunately, this event could only draw a field of five. Those with a sizeable bankroll will no doubt simply buy this race. As for me, I'm going to single here; but not with the Morning Line Favorite, # 3 Pretty Mischievous (ML 8-5). Instead, I'm going with the runner who took the Show behind Pretty Mischievous last time out in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra, # 5 Hoosier Philly (ML 2-1). If Hoosier Philly returns to her 2022 form than there's little doubt in my mind that she can defeat this field.
LEG 4 - Race 12 @ TP - The Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 2 Scoobie Quando (ML 15-1) and # 3 Event Detail (ML 15-1)
This was my spread leg, as I'm using a half dozen runners in this contest on my main ticket. The quandary is that the two lowest prices on the Morning Line, # 1 Major Dude (ML 5-2) and # 10 Two Phil's (ML 7-2) will both be competing on a synthetic surface for the first time in their respective careers. Because of that, I thought it best to go wide in this leg.
LEG 5 - Race 12 @ FG - The Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt
No surprise in my top choice, as # 2 Instant Coffee (ML 2-1) is my "A" Selection here. Perhaps some surprise that I didn't single Instant Coffee in this leg. Almost certainly some raised eyebrows (at least) regarding the two runners that I have joining Instant Coffee on my main ticket: # 11 Jace's Road (ML 12-1) and # 9 Tapit's Conquest (10-1).
Jace's Road's form looks much better after you toss the two off-track races. Tapit's Conquest might benefit by covering the additional real estate. And having Instant Coffee, Jace's Road, and Tapit's Conquest on my main ticket means that I have all three Brad Cox trainees covered.
OK, that's the analysis. Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections for each leg:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 5 with 2,5,11 with 5 with 1,4,7,8,10,11 with 2,9,11 $27.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P5: 2,3 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $8.00
$0.50 P5: 5 with 4,9 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 3 with 8,11 with 2,11 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 4,6 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 5 with 8 with 5 with 8 with 2 $0.50
$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 1,2,4 with 8 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 5,12 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 3,5 $1.00
Total: $61.00
Post Time for Race 9 @ FG is 5:04 EDT / 2:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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