So we arrive at the Rodney Dangerfield of horse racing's Triple Crown, the jewel that gets no respect, the Preakness Stakes. This year's renewal of the Preakness is so lightly regarded that even the horses couldn't be bothered to show up, as the field for 2023 is the smallest since Ronald Regan was President. But all that is relative, as we're still talking about one of the sport's classics. So with all that said let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four at Pimlico Race Course ending with the Preakness Stakes.
RACE 10 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf
Scratch # 2 Kenny Had a Notion (Morning Line 50-1); # 4 Uncle Earnie (ML 20-1); # 5 Smokin' Jay (ML 6-1); # 7 Fore Harp (ML 15-1); and # 8 Grateful Bred (ML 10-1)
Nothing like kicking things off with a turf sprint to see whether or not this is going to be a good sequence for you. Turf sprints, specifically the five furlong variety, tend to have more long shot winners than other stakes, be they State Bred Only, Listed, or Graded. I believe that's because turf sprints are the stakes where class and breeding tend to matter least.
With that said, I singled # 10 Coppola (ML 6-1) on my main ticket because I don't think the class rise will have a negative effect on his chances to win. In my opinion Coppola could emerge victorious in this contest with a repeat of the effort that he gave last time out. But I think that Coppola will actually improve upon that result Saturday, as Coppola should benefit from having to travel a shorter distance than he did when winning by over four lengths earlier this month at Churchill Downs. So it's Coppola solo on my main ticket in this leg.
RACE 11 - The Maryland Sprint (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 4 Al Loves Josie (ML 10-1)
I landed on # 8 Straight No Chaser (ML 3-1) rather than the Morning Line Favorite, # 7 Nakatomi (ML 5-2) because I believe that the six furlong distance favors Straight No Chaser more than Nakatomi. So it's Straight No Chaser on the main ticket without Nakatomi; but not solo, as I think # 2 Prevalence (ML 8-1) is worth doubling the cost of my main ticket due to the way that's he's been working this month over at Keeneland.
RACE 12 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
God bless you if you have a handle on this race; because I sure don't. If # 1 Funtastic Again (ML 3-1) brings his form from the synthetic over to the grass, then Funtastic Again wins; but that's no small "if." So it's everybody into the pool, as I go "ALL" in this third leg of the sequence.
RACE 13 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 8 First Mission (ML 5-2)
As it was with the Kentucky Derby, a scratch late in the week has changed the outlook of this contest. I'm playing against Kentucky Derby winner # 3 Mage (ML 8-5) because I believe that his Derby victory was highly dependent upon a pace scenario that I don't think that he will be gifted Saturday.
I'm also fading the Bob Baffert trained # 1 National Treasure (ML 4-1). I don't think National Treasure has improved significantly upon his two year old season, and I'm not a fan of runners adding blinkers prior to a Triple Crown event (now is not the time to still be figuring things out for your three year old). So it's two deep on the main ticket for me here, with # 5 Red Route One (ML 10-1) and # 7 Blazing Sevens (ML 6-1).
Okay; that's the analysis. Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:
And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how I translate those Selections into tickets:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 8 with 1 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 2,8 with 1,6 with 5,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,8 with ALL with 5,7 $18.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 1,11,13 with 2,8 with 1,6 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 7,9 with 1,6 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,8 with 1,6 with 1,3 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,6,9,12 with 8 with 1 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,3,5,6,10 with 1 with 5 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 1 with 2,4,6 $1.50
Total: $53.00
Post Time for Race 10 is 4:12 EDT / 1:12 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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