Saturday, May 27, 2023

5/27/23 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"When you reach a certain age in life, time becomes more important than money, and I think that happens in your 50s." - Jesse Ventura

As I continue to play the smaller race tracks with the fan-friendly take outs, I make my way Saturday to the Land of 10,000 Lakes; Shakopee, MN, to be more precise, where Canterbury Park is celebrating the opening day of its 2023 meet.  The featured race on the card is the $50k Lady Slipper, where we have an entrant seeking a three peat.  But more on that below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.

RACE 6 - OC 16k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 4 Reckoning Day (Morning Line 3-1)

Having your intended big ticket single scratch is definitely a sign.  A sign of what I'm not sure; but it's definitely a sign.  Anyway, lest I forget, allow me to note here for all those interested that the runners in this field that are in for the $16k claiming price are # 2 Euromantic (ML 12-1); #5 Colonel Klink (ML 5-1); and # 7 Lucky McCoy (ML 15-1).  Also running with a price tag on his head is # 8 Astronaut Oscar (ML 8-1); but because Astronaut Oscar is a Minnesota bred, claiming him will cost you $25k.

With my intended single guaranteed to not lose today, I chose to play this one solid, using the two runners that will almost certainly take the lion's share of the action.  Unfortunately, I just don't see anyway to get creative with this leg; though I do see plenty of ways to outsmart myself.  So for the opening leg in this sequence, I'm just going to take what the game is giving me, and hope for a formful result.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $10k B - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf

The B designation in the conditions above is that this is an N3L if your distaff runner is a Minnesota bred; otherwise, this race is for non-Winners of Two Lifetime.  Note that the only entrant in this field to have visited the winner's circle multiple times is the Minnesota bred # 6 Elegance N Tonic.

I've kept Morning Line Favorite # 7 Jewel Azul (ML 5-2) off my main ticket in this leg.  I don't like that Jewel Azul is oh-for-seven lifetime over this turf course; and I really don't like Jewel Azul's career record of one-for-twenty-seven, with that lone victory coming back in February, 2021.  So it's just two deep on my main ticket this leg, with the Morning Line Favorite being relegated to backup ticket status.

RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 7 Out Run'm (ML 6-1) and # 10 Eyes Flying Bye (ML 8-1)

Morning Line Favorite # 2 Silver Dash (ML 3-1) looks legitimate enough here; certainly legitimate enough for me to use on my main ticket.  But I'm going to get brave in this leg (perhaps excessively so) and make # 3 Sam Sez (ML  20-1) my "A" Selection for this leg.  Sam Sez is lightly raced, and Sam Sez's best outings have been over this main track with today's rider, Ezequiel Lara, on his back.  So those two go onto my main ticket, and you can be sure that I'll be using that pair in the intra-race exotics as well.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Lady Slipper $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 9 Ready to Runaway (ML 4-1)

By any objective measure, # 10 Charlie's Penny (ML 7-5) should be a main ticket single.  But I'm a sucker for runners in a stakes that have previously won that event.  Such is the case with # 7 Clickbait (ML 9-2); indeed, doubly so, as Clickbait was victorious in the Lady Slipper in both 2022 and 2021.  So while I may later regret doing so, I am doubling the cost of my main ticket by using both Charlie's Penny and Clickbait.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR"A" SELECTIONS"B+" SELECTIONS"B" SELECTIONS"C+" SELECTIONS"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 13,15,82,6,7
LEG 29,8,612,3,4,5,7
LEG 33,28,91,4,5,6,11,12
LEG 410,71,2,3,4,5,6,8

And below are the tickets that I've translated those Selections into, using a variation of the Steve Crist method:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 9 with 3 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 8,9 with 2,3 with 7,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 6,8,9 with 2,3 with 7,10 $12.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 8,9 with 2,3 with 7,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 2,3 with 7,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 8,9 with 8,9 with 7,10 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 9 with 3 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,3,4,5,7 with 3 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 1,4,5,6,11,12 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 3 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 $3.50

Total: $45.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 8:37 EDT / 5:37 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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