You must accept that you might fail; then, if you do your best and still don’t win, at least you can be satisfied that you’ve tried. If you don’t accept failure as a possibility, you don’t set high goals, you don’t branch out, you don’t try, you don’t take the risk. – Rosalynn Carter
It's just a few more days 'til the Kentucky Derby; which, as regular readers already know, means that this blog is about to go dark. Good Lord willing I will be spending the first Saturday in May at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, Nevada, enjoying great service along with the company of great friends. I may be able to get a few Tweets out; but I anticipate that, as usual, there just won't be enough time for a full blog post.
Before I go, allow me to point you to a few of the free Kentucky Derby resources available online.
Free DRF Formulator Past Performances for both the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks can be had here, along with what I am sure will be some fine video analysis by Dan Illman, joined by Mike Beer and/or Matt Bernier.
Speaking of fine video analysis, the Down to the Wire joint entry of Craig J (@Derbyologist) and Candice Hare (@chare889) share their thoughts via YouTube on the Kentucky Oaks as well as (with the assistance of Ryan Dickey (@rdickey249) and Sebastian Piscuskas (@seabass912)) the Kentucky Derby. Scott Shapiro (@ScottShap34) has also put together a nice series of Shap 'Cap videos looking at various aspects of the Kentucky Derby, all available courtesy of HorseRacingNation.com.
Free Brisnet PPs are available online for the Kentucky Oaks (scroll down to May 6, Churchill Downs - Race 11) and the Kentucky Derby (scroll down to May 7, Churchill Downs - Race 12; and, just in case you didn't notice, the Oaks link should also work for the Derby, and vice-versa). Finally, if you're willing to divulge your email address, XpressBet.com is offering a free 2016 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, a very fine piece of literature that offers some interesting tidbits as well as analysis and betting strategies from Steve Byk, Jon White, Bob Neumeier, and others.
As for me, I think this renewal of the Derby boils down to whether or not Morning Line Favorite # 13 Nyquist (ML 3-1) can run ten furlongs. If Nyquist can make the distance, then he's a legitimate Favorite; if Nyquist can't make the distance, then he's 2013 Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents, a very fine horse that just wasn't built to go classic distances, and can therefore be safely kept off your tickets (note that Goldencents, like Nyquist, was trained by Doug O'Neill).
Personally, I'm of the opinion that Nyquist was more bored than tired in the stretch of the Florida Derby, and therefore can make the distance in the Derby. But my opinion isn't strong enough in that area to make Nyquist a single. Therefore, while my multi-race tickets won't be finalized until Saturday, I expect that I'll also be using # 11 Exaggerator (ML 8-1) (incidentally, Exaggerator may be the best horse in the field to build your intra-race exotic tickets around, for those who focus on those wagers) as well as # 17 Mor Spirit (ML 12-1). I may also have to find room for # 3 Creator (ML 10-1), while # 5 Gun Runner (ML 10-1) and # 20 Danzing Candy (ML 15-1) are on the bubble. But I'm writing this on Wednesday; all this could change by Saturday, with the exception of Nyquist and Exaggerator, who will definitely be on my tickets as long as they make it into the gate.
So there you have it. If you find yourself near Green Valley Ranch be sure to stop by and say "Hi". And wherever you find yourself watching the Derby on Saturday, be it east coast or west coast or anywhere in-between or around the world, be sure to have fun.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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