6/4/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“It's failure that gives you the proper perspective on success.” - Ellen DeGeneres

We're just a week away from the Belmont Stakes, the third and final leg of horse racing's Triple Crown.  So that leaves us with just seven days to build our respective bankrolls for what will certainly be a monster card in New York.  My attempt to increase my own stack of cash finds me once again scouring the card in Toronto, where Saturday's featured race is the Grade 2 Royal North.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - MOC 25k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Dixie's Flatter (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 3 Summer Sunset (ML 5-1)

# 4 Shambo (ML 20-1)

# 8 Mr Crowley (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Chocolate Run (ML 15-1)

# 2 Lilnmighty (ML 10-1)

# 5 Mr. Commish (ML 20-1)

# 7 Love the Game (ML 8-1)

# 9 Wicked Crazy (ML 20-1)

# 10 Determined Friend (ML 6-1)

For those who note such things, Mr. Commish is the only runner in this field to not be competing with the $25k price tag on his head.

Dixie's Flatter took the Show against more expensive stock last time out, and runners for Trainer Josie Carroll tend to do well going second off the layoff.  Summer Sunset took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

Shambo is making his 2022 debut, and is doing so for a new barn; specifically, the barn of Trainer Zeljko Krcmar, who tends to do well with new hires.  Mr Crowley showed good early speed in his debut last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) The Royal North (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Gidgetta (ML 12-1)

B's

# 5 Boardroom (ML 2-1)

# 6 Amalfi Coast (ML 5-2)

# 8 Souper Sensational (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Lady War Machine (ML 12-1)

# 2 In Good Spirits (ML 4-1)

# 3 Jeanie B (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 4 La Libertee (ML 20-1)

Gidgetta is making her 2022 debut here, and Gidgetta could be the one running best late.  Boardroom took the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Whimsical.  This will be Boardroom's first try on the grass.  If Boardroom takes to the turf, then expect Boardroom to try to get the jump on Gidgetta and take first run at the leaders.

Amalfi Coast is the defending champ for this event, having emerged victorious when it was last run in August 2021.  Souper Sensational, like Boardroom, is also making her turf debut.  Souper Sensational is a daughter of Curlin, who has sired enough turf stakes winners to make it reasonable to expect Souper Sensational to maintain her form with the surface switch.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 62.5k B - Five Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 6 Millennium Force (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Owen's Tour Guide (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Souper Munnings (ML 5-2)

# 4 Roman d'Oro (ML 6-1)

# 5 Amalfi Sky (ML 10-1)

# 7 Billyjane (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Hai Bobbi (ML 4-1)

For the record, Billyjane is the only runner here that will be leaving the gate with the $62.5k price tag on her head.

Millennium Force fits well at this level, and a strong case could be make for making Millennium Force a big ticket single.  However, I like how well Owen's Tour Guide has run on the Woodbine grass in the past; and because of that I'm willing to double the cost of my main ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) ALW N1X - Seven Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Ready Lady (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Cheerupsleepyjean (Fr) (ML 4-1)

# 7 Marais (ML 15-1)
# 9 Sake (Fr) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Teacher's Pet (ML 20-1)
# 2 Ann of Cleves (ML 20-1)

# 5 Quinte Road (ML 10-1)
# 6 She Makes a Point (ML 6-1)

# 8 Commanders Palace (ML 15-1)

# 10 Gloriannia (ML 30-1)
# 11 Sleek Lynx (GB) (ML 10-1)

# 12 English Biscuit (ML 30-1)

# 14 She's a Dream (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 13 Spider Belle (ML 20-1)

Ready Lady only prior career victory came at today's distance over this turf course.  Cheeupsleepyjean (Fr) is making her 2022 debut here, and can be expected to show more than she did last time out at Kentucky Downs.  Marais took the Place at this class level over the main track last time out.

Sake (Fr), making her 2022 debut, looks well meant here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 7 with 6 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 3,4,6,8 with 5,6,7,8 with 1,6 with 3,4,7,9 $25.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,5,7,9,10 with 7 with 6 with 3 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4 with 6 with 3 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 6 with 7 with 3,4,5,7 with 3 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 6 with 7 with 6 with 1,2,5,6,8,10,11,12,14 $1.80

Total: $31.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo