Saturday is Big Cap Day out in Arcadia, where a first rate card chock full of stakes, chief among them the 80th running of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, has been cobbled together for our enjoyment. So let's get to it, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - The Triple Bend (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Masochistic (Morning Line 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Kobe's Back (ML 5-2)
# 4 Silent Bird (ML 4-1)
# 7 Conquest Cobra (ML 10-1)
If this contest runs to form it will have the appearance of a greyhound race, with Masochistic playing the role of the rabbit while the rest of the field runs in the futile hope of perhaps someday, maybe, catching up with him. However, should Masochistic just not have it today, then Kobe's Back (the Post Time Favorite in last year's running of this event), Silent Bird, and Conquest Cobra appear to be the ones most likely to be battling it out at the wire.
RACE 9 - The Frank E Kilroe Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Bolo (ML 3-1)
# 7 What a View (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Bal a Bali (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Dortmund (ML 4-1)
# 5 Ring Weekend (ML 4-1)
# 6 Conquest Enforcer (ML 7-2)
C's
None
EDIT- SCRATCH # 2 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 12-1)
Dortmund is the best horse in this field, but this will be his first race on turf rather than dirt, as well as being his first race away from the barn of Bob Baffert. So how will Dortmund run today in his first try on the lawn? I have no idea.
In addition, more than half this field was within a length of each other at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 Arcadia. Put it all together and this contest screams chaos. So it's everybody into the pool, as I'll be hitting the "ALL" button for this leg of the sequence.
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Midnight Storm (ML 8-5)
# 3 Shaman Ghost (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Follow Me Crev (ML 8-1)
# 7 Twentytwentyvision (ML 12-1)
# 9 Imperative (ML 5-1)
The featured race has the potential to be a replay of The Triple Bend (Race 8 above), with Midnight Storm playing catch me if you can with the rest of the field. But the difference here is distance; for while Masochistic is a perfect three-for-three in his career when competing at seven furlongs (the distance that he will be running today), Midnight Storm failed miserably the one time that he tried to cover the ten furlongs that he will need to run in the Big Cap.
The key difference for Midnight Storm today compared to that prior try at a mile and a quarter is that there does not appear to be anyone in this field who can challenge him during the opening stage of the event, therefore minimizing the risk that Midnight Storm will be dueled into the ground early and have nothing left late. However, should Midnight Storm still find ten furlongs to be a bridge too far, expect Shaman Ghost to catch him late.
Twentytwentyvision has done well in his prior tries on a Fast dirt track. Imperative could get first run at Midnight Storm and beat Shaman Ghost to the wire. And if somehow, someway, it all falls apart, Follow Me Crev could be the one running best late.
RACE 11 - (F) The China Doll $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Sircat Sally (ML 5-2)
# 11 Miss Sunset (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Miss Sugars (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 2 Go On Mary (ML 10-1)
# 3 Bernina Star (ML 20-1)
# 4 How About Zero (ML 15-1)
# 10 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 13 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 12-1)
C's
# 9 Madam Dancealot (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 12 Lady Beware (Ire) (ML 30-1) and # 14 Spy Ring (Ire) (ML 8-1). Bring in # 13 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 12-1).
Sircat Sally will be making her first start in open company, but the form that Sircat Sally has shown in winning her initial three starts should hold up against this field. Miss Sunset defeated several running here last time out in the Sweet Life.
Miss Sugars (GB) took the Place just behind Miss Sunset in The Sweet Life, with Go On Mary completing the Trifecta in that contest. Bernina Star was a convincing winner going around two turns on the main track last time out; Trainer James Cassidy tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
How About Zero took the Place behind Sircat Sally in the California Cup Oaks two starts back. Beau Recall (Ire) could be the one running best late. Siberian Iris (Ire) was impressive in winning her three year old debut last time out. Madam Dancealot (Ire) completed the Superfecta in the Sweet Life last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Yes, we are over budget; but I think it's justified based upon the anticipated size of the pool. So with that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 5,11 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5 with ALL with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,5,10,11,13 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 5,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3,7 with 6,7,9 with 5,11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 9 $2.00
Total: $76.00
EDIT: TICKETS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE SCRATCH OF FLAMBOYANT (FR)
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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