Sunday, April 10, 2016

4/10/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the final day of The Winter/Spring Meet at Santa Anita, with the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano highlighting the card (though, as you'll see below, they changed it up a bit due to the weather).  So until they come back to town in May, we'll take one last run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - The San Juan Capistrano (Grade 3) - Fifteen Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Cardiac (Morning Line 20-1)
# 6 Generosidade (Uru) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Energia Fribby (Brz) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Kenjisstorm (ML 8-1)
# 8 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 7-2)

C's

# 9 Life's Journey (ML 20-1)
# 10 Generoso (Uru) (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 6-1); # 5 Bourbon Soul (ML 6-1); and # 7 Blingo (ML 6-1).

Note the change in distance above from the more customary fourteen furlongs for this event.  Due to the wet weather in SoCal, rather than charge down the hill and then circling the course, the runners will confine themselves to the flats, with an added furlong tossed in.

Generosidade (Uru), Quick Casablanca (Chi), and Energia Fribby (Brz) formed the Trifecta in last month's running of the Grade 2 San Luis Rey.  Generosidade took a big step forward in winning last time out; so it would not surprise if she was to regress off that effort.  Quick Casablanca looks well meant here; but caution is always advised when looking at a runner with an eleven race losing streak who hasn't seen the Winner's Circle in nearly two years.  Energia Fribby could step up; but if so, then you have to wonder why he didn't last time out.

Cardiac and Kenjisstorm are the only two runners in here with any speed; so it's possible one of them gets loose and puts the others to sleep (and I think that one could be Cardiac).  Life's Journey and Generoso (Uru) are on the ticket because this looks like a race where pretty much anything can happen.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 My Fiona (ML 8-1)
# 4 Shh She's Ours (ML 4-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 6 Back Beauty (ML 6-1)
# 7 Discatsonthesquare (ML 6-1)
# 9 Conquest Flatterme (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 3 Calm the Sea (ML 5-2).

My Fiona has taken the Show in each of her last two starts at this class level.  Shh She's Ours moves up the class ladder after winning easily last time out.  Back Beauty tired after doing all the heavy lifting last time out; perhaps she'll improve with the reduction in distance.

Discatsonthesquare returns from an extended vacation after having hit the board at this class level in each of her last four starts.  Conquest Flatterme lost all chance last time when she bobbled at the break, after having finished in the Trifecta at this class level in her two starts prior to that.

RACE 10 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Where's Bubba (ML 7-2)
# 12 Inexcess Time (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 3 Rolo Tamaci (ML 3-1)

C's

# 10 Blue Law (ML 4-1)
# 11 Boompa (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 5 Coyote Fly (No Line); # 8 Peach Arch (NL); and # 13 Ladies Man (NL).

Where's Bubba missed by half a length at this class level last time out, and may prefer the shortened distance.  Inexcess Time disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, but now goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who does well with such.

Rolo Tamaci missed by half a length at this class level last time out, but may not appreciate the cut back in distance.  Blue Law drops down to a more realistic class level.  Boompa missed by just a neck at this class level last time out; but that was back in October, and Boompa's work tab suggests that he may need a race.

RACE 11 - [S] (F) Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Watch Me Now (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Stylistic (ML 3-1)
# 4 Seattle Salt (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 1 Golden Squeeze (NL); # 5 Don't Tell Judy (ML 6-1); # 9 Wondrous Cat (ML 4-1); # 10 She's Moja (ML 30-1).

Watch Me Now took the Show at this class level two starts back, and just didn't belong against non-claiming maidens last time out.  Stylistic drops in for a tag for the time, as well as competing on dirt for the first time.  Seattle Salt took the Show at this class level last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,6 with 1,4 with 2,12 with 6 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,8 with 1,4 with 2,3,12 with 2,4,6 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 1,4 with 2,12 with 6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 6,7,9 with 2,12 with 6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 1,4 with 10,11 with 6 $4.00

Total: $67.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:17 EDT / 4:17 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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