Thursday, April 28, 2016

4/28/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

It seems that I have once again found myself with some spare time on my hands; perhaps not so coincidentally, it also seems that I have once again found myself with a full list of household chores waiting to be completed.  But those will have to wait, as we have a little mid-week fun by taking another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 5 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Spirit World (Morning Line 5-2)
# 6 Armored Car (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Cheap O Charlie (ML 3-1)
# 5 Proud Fighter (ML 10-1)
# 7 Chanito (ML 8-1)

Spirit World has taken the Place in four of his seven career starts, all at this class level.  Spirit World disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two starts.  In my opinion seven starts is way too few to decree that a horse has seconditis; but Spirit World's record does suggest that some caution is advised.

Armored Car, who has failed in each of his last three contests as the Post Time Favorite, continues his drop through the class ranks for Trainer Doug O'Neill.  Armored Car is also cutting back in distance to his first one turn race, which should help as he has backed up in the stretch in each of his eight prior career starts.

Cheap O Charlie adds the hood as he seeks to return to the form that he showed in his first two career starts before going on the shelf for thirteen months.  Proud Fighter returns from an extended layoff and moves to the barn of Trainer Justin Clark, who has enjoyed success when sending out newly acquired stock for the first time.  Chanito drops in for a tag for the first time, though Chanito's recent efforts suggest this isn't so much a class drop as it is an acceptance of reality.

RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Shiny Nugget (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 3 Last One Standing (ML 7-2)
# 7 Ready Cat (ML 5-1)
# 8 Cherokee Dynasty (ML 4-1)


C's

None

Scratch # 2 Courageous Dave (ML 6-1)

Shiny Nugget won at this class level last time out.  While that win came for a different barn, new Trainer Steve Knapp does quite well (in a limited sample) when sending out runners first time off a claim.

Last One Standing drops in class while cutting back to just one turn racing.  Note also the bullet work from the gate last Thursday.  Ready Cat defeated more expensive two starts back.  Cherokee Dynasty took the Show at this class level in each of his last two starts.

RACE 7 - Clm $8k N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 John's Journey (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Senator Bob (ML 6-1)
# 7 Mr. Itkins (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Hawk's Eyes (Brz) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Bound for Heaven (ML 20-1)
# 8 Crazy Al (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 5 Zippingaroundtown (ML 8-1)

The "X" in the race description above should probably be a "Y", as the conditions limit this contest to those which have not won a race in 2016, excluding Maiden, Claiming, and Starter Races for $6.25k or less.

John's Journey took the Show at Santa Anita at this class level two starts back.  The concern with John's Journey is that you have to go back a dozen starts to July 5, 2014 to find the last time that he visited the Winner's Circle.

Senator Bob has been successful competing over this track of late during the nighttime hours, and did take the Show against non-conditioned $10k claimers at Del Mar last Summer.  Mr. Itkins has finished in the Trifecta four of the five times that he has competed on this track during daylight hours.

Hawk's Eyes (Brz) goes second off the layoff for Trainer Lorenzo Ruiz, has does quite well with such (in a limited sample).  Hawk's Eyes also gains the services of Jockey Tiago Pereira, who has been having a quality meet.

Bound for Heaven has been in the Exacta four of the five times that he has competed on this track with the lights off.  Crazy Al could benefit from losing the hood.

RACE 8 - Clm $10k N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Dustin's Passion (ML 5-2)
# 4 Valentine Boy (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 8 Deputy's Command (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Macho Sox (ML 12-1)
# 6 Warren's Rail Bird (ML 8-1)
# 10 No Surrender (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 3 The Gold Monkey (ML 5-1), but don't bring in # 11 Bluegrass Reward (ML 6-1) off the Also Eligible list, as that one will not run either.

As with Race 7 above, the "X" in the race description above should probably be a "Y", as the conditions limit this contest to those which have not won a race in 2016, excluding Maiden, Claiming, and Starter Races for $8k or less.

Dustin's Passion has finished in the Trifecta each of the four times in his career that he has competed at this distance.  Valentine Boy took the Show against non-conditioned claimers in each of his last two starts around two turns.  Deputy's Command could be the one running best late in this contest.

Macho Sox defeated N1X Allowance company in New Mexico two starts back, and is one for three in his career over this track during the daytime.  Warren's Rail Bird was victorious over this track last Summer when going from two sprints to a route.  No Surrender took the Show against non-conditioned claimers last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 5 with 9 with 1,4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 3,5,7,8 with 1,7,9 with 1,4,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 5 with 9 with 1,4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 5 with 3,4,8 with 1,4 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 5 with 9 with 2,6,10 $3.00

Total: $52.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 6:58 EDT / 3:58 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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