Saturday, April 23, 2016

4/23/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

“In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.” – Albert Einstein

The featured race Saturday at Los Alamitos is the Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes, an event which for the past couple of decades had been held in the early summer, sometime between late June and mid July.  Indeed, you have to go back to 1997, back when this race was known as The A Gleam Handicap and run on the dirt at Hollywood Park, for the last time that this event took place in April (Trivia Question: Which horse won The A Gleam Handicap back on April 26, 1997?  Answer below).  We'll be taking a look at The Great Lady M Stakes below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Captain Akers (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 1 Asian Sun (ML 4-1)
# 2 My Son John (ML 8-1)
# 3 Sivali (ML 4-1)

# 7 Jason X L (ML 5-2)

C's

None

Captain Akers took the Place at this class level last time out.  The concern with Captain Akers is that he has lost ground in the stretch in each of his nine prior career races; which is the reason why we're spreading a bit wide in this leg.

Asian Sun drops in for a tag for the first time while moving from state bred restricted to open company.  So it's not much of a drop; but it is a step down the class ladder.  My Son John runs back fresh and cuts back to just one turn racing; his first one turn contest since his debut over this track last December.  Will it help?  Can't hurt.

Sivali took the Place at this class level last time out.  Jason X L adds the hood for his second career start; a move with which Trainer Peter Eurton tends to do well.

RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Saint Adalbert (ML 6-5)

B’s

# 3 Cold Bay (ML 12-1)
# 5 Changing Karma (ML 10-1)
# 6 Preacher's Bluff (ML 5-2)

C's

# 9 Znelle (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 7 Soul Crusher (ML 6-1).

The "X" in the race description above should probably be a "Y", as the conditions limit this contest to those which have not won a race in 2016, excluding Maiden, Claiming, and Starter Races for $5k or less.

Saint Adalbert has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two races, both against more expensive stock upstate.  The concern is that neither of those contests were run on real dirt; one being on the turf while the other was on the synthetic.  However, Saint Adalbert has won on the dirt previously, so he should keep his form even with the surface change.

Cold Bay took the Place against more expensive over this track back in December.  Cold Bay also had a fine work over this track last Saturday.  Changing Karma goes first off the claim for Trainer Kelly Castaneda, who tends to do well with such.

Preacher's Bluff was a winner at this class level the last time that he competed on a fast dirt track.  Znelle has had success in the past when competing on this track in the daylight.

RACE 8 - (F) The Great Lady M (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Fantastic Style (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Thirteen Arrows (ML 12-1)
# 3 Lost Bus (ML 7-2)
# 5 Ben's Duchess (ML 4-1)

Fantastic Style, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, won the Grade 3 Las Flores last time out, as well as the 2015 running of this event.

Thirteen Arrows. one of three here trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the quickest in this field; so despite starting on the rail, Jockey Martin Garcia could have his choice of lanes.  Lost Bus won the Grade 2 Santa Monica two starts back.  Ben's Duchess took the Place behind Fantastic Style in the Las Flores last time out, and had a nice work over this track on Monday.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $6.25k N2X - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Secret Chords (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 1 Gracee Hunny (ML 6-1)
# 2 Thames Valley (ML 9-2)
# 6 One Bye Two (ML 15-1)

C's

# 4 Easter Lillian (ML 7-2)

Unlike Race 7 above, the "X" in the race description is here used in the more traditional sense of referring to career Wins, while also excluding Maiden, Claiming, and Starter Races for $5k or less.

Secret Chords defeated more expensive stock over this track last time out.  Gracee Hunny has finished in the Trifecta all three times that she's competed over this track during daylight hours.

Thames Valley has been showing a steadily improving form while winning three straight over this track under the lights.  If One Bye Two can return to the form that she showed last Fall, she could win by the length of the stretch.  Easter Lillian was victorious the last time that she competed on a fast dirt track, albeit against cheaper stock.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 2 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,7 with 2,3,5,6 with 2 with 1,2,6,10 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4 with 9 with 2 with 10 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 1,3,5 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 2 with 4 $0.50

Total: $43.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Answer to Trivia Question above: The 1997 A Gleam Handicap was won by Toga Toga Toga, trained by Eduardo Inda, ridden by Gary Stevens.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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