It's Santa Anita Derby Day Saturday, with plenty of stakes and plenty of rain in the forecast. While neither the SA Derby nor Oaks will be a part of our play, we will still be looking at three stakes below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 9 - The Thunder Road $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Twentytwentyvision (Morning Line 5-1)
# 12 What a View (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Si Sage (Fr) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Decisive Edge (ML 15-1)
# 8 Texas Red (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 McHeat (ML 20-1) and # 14 Ohio (Brz) (ML 4-1). Bring in # 13 Play Hard to Get (ML 15-1) from the Also Eligible List.
As I type this, this contest is still on the grass; so that's how I'm going to analyze it, though I think we're still good even if this race gets moved to the main track.
Twentytwentyvision took the Place in the Grade 1 Eddie Read two starts back. Twentytwentyvision has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in his eight race career, and Trainer Richard Mandella does just fine when bringing runners back from an extended vacation. If this race is taken off the grass, Twentytwentyvision has previously won over this main track, and having Carson City as grand sire suggests that Twentytwentyvision would not be disadvantaged by an off track.
What a View, winner of the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile last time out, looks like he could be all alone up front in the early going of this contest, and may remain that way right on up to the wire. Si Sage (Fr), winner of the Grade 3 Last Tycoon last time out, has been working well for this contest.
Decisive Edge has done well in the past when the turf has been softened. Texas Red has the back class to compete here, though his turf pedigree credentials are less than solid.
RACE 10 - [S] The Eddie Echo $200k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Tough But Nice (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Gold Rush Dancer (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Demonslayer (ML 8-1)
# 2 Tough It Out (ML 4-1)
# 5 Brandofthebartender (ML 6-1)
Tough But Nice has visited the Winner's Circle each of the two times in his career that he has competed against state bred only company. Gold Rush Dancer showed some nice early speed last time out before throwing in the towel against open stakes company.
Demonslayer wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve with the turn back in distance. Tough It Out is stakes placed against state bred company, but may need more distance to perform at his peak. Brandofthebartender has the breeding to handle a rain soaked track, and the addition of blinkers should see him more forwardly placed early.
RACE 11 - [S] (F) The Evening Jewel $200k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Pacific Heat (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Later My Love (ML 12-1)
# 5 Be a Lady (ML 4-1)
C's
# 8 Roo's Valentine (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 6 Run Like the Boss (ML 30-1).
Pacific Heat is a two time stakes winner against state bred company, and has been proven proficient regardless of conditions, be it turf or dirt, or sprint or route.
Later My Love should be speed on the rail, and may steal this one on the front end. Be a Lady has been showing steady improvement while climbing the class ladder during her four race winning streak. Roo's Valentine, winner of The Soviet Problem last year, shows a good work tab in preparation for this contest.
RACE 12 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Giant Expectations (ML 5-2)
B's
# 10 American Freedom (ML 3-1)
# 11 Mucho Chrome (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Street to Indy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Brown's Baby Boy (ML 6-1)
# 9 The Lieutenant (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Super Touch (ML 30-1).
Giant Expectations took the Place at this class level last time out. American Freedom is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Baffert who shows a decent worktab, despite the gap between March 5 and March 28. Mucho Chrome has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two starts at this class level, and should be forwardly placed early.
Street to Indy, Brown's Baby Boy, and The Lieutenant are all second time starters who showed enough life in their debut and have enough wet track breeding in their pedigree to warrant consideration here.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7,12 with 6 with 4 with 4 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,7,8,12 with 6,7 with 1,4,5 with 4,10,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7,12 with 1,2,5 with 4 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7,12 with 6 with 8 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7,12 with 6 with 4 with 7,8,9 $3.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 7:17 EDT / 4:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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