Saturday, August 13, 2016

8/13/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Juveniles are at the forefront of Saturday's card at Del Mar, with the best of them (so far) competing in the Grade 2 Best Pal.  We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at the Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Big Gray Rocket (Morning Line 5-2)
# 8 Antioch (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Budokan (ML 8-1)
# 4 Gemstorm (ML 6-1)
# 7 Tybee Island (ML 3-1)
# 10 Cut (ML 20-1)


C's

None

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 T. Montana (ML 10-1), as he does not draw in.

These are all juveniles, and every runner in the field is a first time starter.  So what do you look for when making selections?  Personally, I focus on sire stats and trainer stats with debut runners.  I also check the workouts; not so much for recorded times, but primarily to see which runners have been working on a consistent schedule; that is, those showing very few (if any) noticeable extended breaks between dates worked.  Otherwise, these type races (where every runner is making their debut) are about as close to outright gambling as you can get when playing the horses (as opposed to playing a slot machine or the roulette wheel); and if you can do so while staying within your budget, you just might be better off punching the "ALL" button.

RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Klimt (ML 9-5)

B's

# 6 Big League (ML 2-1)

C's

# 4 Thirstforlife (ML 5-2)

Klimt, trained by Bob Baffert, was much improved last time out, graduating in his second career start.  Big League was impressive winning his debut last time out.  Thirstforlifewas, shipping in from Kentucky, showed the ability to pass other runners on his way to victory last time out; a trait that is always nice to see in juveniles.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Fantasy of Luck (ML 7-2)
# 6 Mysterious Miracle (ML 9-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 9 Call to Congrats (ML 8-1)
# 11 Ashley's Sassy (ML 5-1)
# 12 Street Surrender (ML 12-1)

Fantasy of Luck moves up to open company after showing steady improvement in her races this year against state bred only competition.  Mysterious Miracle took the Place at this class level last time out.

Call to Congrats took the Place at this class level two starts back, and now goes first time for the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato, who tends to do well with such (as well as those, like Call to Congrats, who are returning from an extended layoff).  Ashley's Sassy could improve with the return to one-turn sprinting on dirt.  Street Surrender, who won her debut by coming off the pace, has found herself caught in a pace battle in each of her next three starts.  Perhaps today, with the wide draw, Street Surrender will hang back early and swoop in late.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Georgia Blue (ML 6-1)
# 10 Special Gal (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Exuberante (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 3 Onzaway (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 2 Kihei Sunset (ML 5-1)

Georgia Blue took the Place at this class level last time out, and she could find herself all alone on the front end for most, if not all, of this contest.  Special Gal, trained by Phil D'Amato, tries some California grass for the first time after finishing within two lengths of the winner on dirt in her debut last time out.

Exuberante (GB) finished in the Trifecta at this class level two and three starts back, before trying stakes company last time out.  Onzaway hit the wire just two lengths behind the winner last time out at this class level, and seems capable of moving forward with the added distance today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,8 with 5 with 5,6 with 8,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7,8,10 with 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,3,8,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 4 with 5,6 with 8,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 5 with 9,11,12 with 8,10 $6.00

Total: $66.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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