RACE 8 - The Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Ashleyluvssugar (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 7 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 9 Finnegans Wake (ML 8-1)
# 10 El Huerfano (ML 20-1)
C's
# 2 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 8-1)
# 3 Wasted Gardens (ML 12-1)
# 4 Metaboss (ML 4-1)
Ashleyluvssugar took the Place as the Morning Line Favorite in last year's running of this contest. Last time out Ashleyluvssugar took the Place in the Grade 2 Eddie Read, a neck in front of Flamboyant (Fr). Flamboyant, a multiple Graded Stakes winner on the grass, could move up today, going second off the return from Dubai; but the added distance is a concern.
Finnegans Wake could be the one running best late in a field dominated with closers. El Huerfano, despite losing the hood, should still be the one leading the pack for most, if not all, of this contest.
Quick Casablanca (Chi) has proven that he can run all day; perhaps he gets a good trip on the inside. Wasted Gardens is the horse for the course in this field, with three lifetime Wins over this patch of grass. Metaboss looked sharp defeating OC 62k/N2X company last time out, after having disappointed in his four prior contests as the Post Time Favorite.
RACE 9 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 California Chrome (ML 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Hoppertunity (ML 8-1)
# 7 Beholder (ML 3-1)
# 7 Beholder (ML 3-1)
# 8 Dortmund (ML 5-2)
In a field filled with stars, California Chrome looks to be the best of the best. Had he not drawn the rail, the decision to single California Chrome on our big ticket would have been much easier. But even with the rail draw California Chrome should still be able to be in good position entering the first turn, as there is no early speed drawn to his immediate outside.
Hoppertunity could pull the upset should it all fall apart up front; but this track hasn't been very kind of late to late runners. Dortmund gave California Chrome all he could handle last time out in the Grade 2 San Diego; but I think the added distance today is much to California Chrome's benefit.
Beholder won this contest last year, and a repeat of that effort could land her in the Winner's Circle again today. But that's exactly what I think it would take for Beholder to win today: her repeating her career best effort, combined with California Chrome regressing off his current form. So while I respect Beholder's chances of winning this event, I don't think the likelihood of her pulling off the upset (coupled with her likely odds) justifies doubling the cost of our big ticket.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Into The Mystic (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 9 Flamingo Lane (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 La Berma (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 6 Castellani (ML 8-1)
# 8 B Rockett (ML 8-1)
C's
# 5 Minster'sadventure (ML 10-1)
Into the Mystic (Ire), an Allowance winner in France, makes her North American debut for Trainer Richard Mandella, who tends to do well with such. Flamingo Lane has taken the Show at this class level in each of her last two races.
La Berma (Ire) should be forwardly placed early; though it would be nice to know what went wrong last time out. Castellani just missed victory by a neck two starts back at this class level upstate. B Rockett shows a steadily improving form over her last few races. Minster'sadventure finished in the Quinella in each of her two prior career starts over this turf course.
RACE 11 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 7-2)
# 6 Alex Rossi (Arg) (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 5 Arlington House (ML 20-1)
# 8 Missing Groom (ML 6-1)
# 11 Mystery Train (Arg) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 9 J Serino (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Ladies Man (ML 4-1) and # 12 Indygo Bo (ML 8-1)
Carlsbad Mountian goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such. Carlsbad Mountain has won two of his career starts over this main track, and could be the speed of the speed in this contest.
Alex Rossi (Arg) took the Place against more expensive last time out. Arlington House returns to California and could improve going second off the layoff. Missing Groom drops in class for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.
Mystery Train (Arg) drops in for a tag for the first time since coming to the US. J Serino drops into a more realistic class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 1 with 3,9 with 2,6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,8,9,10 with 1 with 3,4,6,8,9 with 2,5,6,8,11 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4 with 1 with 3,9 with 2,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,7,8 with 3,9 with 2,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 2,6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 3,9 with 9 $1.00
Total: $68.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:43 EDT / 5:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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