The Grade 2 Del Mar Mile is Sunday's featured race in Southern California; but we won't be examining that one below, as it comes during the earlier portion of the card, rather than as one of the final four races of the day. What we will be analyzing is a mixture of old and young, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Honor and Courage (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Dangerfield (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 5 Pacific Surf (ML 20-1)
# 7 Swinging Star (ML 12-1)
# 8 Royal Mo (ML 8-1)
# 9 Irish Freedom (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 4 The Rule of King's (ML 8-1), but don't bring in any of those on the Also Eligible list: # 11 What'sontheagenda (ML 5-2); # 12 Unbridled Envy (ML 20-1); # 13 T. Montana (ML 8-1); # 14 Oopper Wallah (ML 8-1), as they won't be competing in this event either.
Honor and Courage showed good early speed in his debut last time out when he left the gate as the Favorite, and runners for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tend to move forward when making their second career start. Dangerfield took the Place at this class level last time out, when he disappointed as the Post Time Favorite. The "C" Selections for this juvenile contest are all first time starters who, in my opinion, could hit the wire first should both Honor and Courage and Dangerfield regress significantly off their prior efforts.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Kentuckian (ML 5-2)
# 7 Guy Code (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 5 Celebrated Talent (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Texas Two Step (ML 4-1)
# 3 Well Measured (ML 6-1)
Kentuckian, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is a Graded Stakes winner prepping in a non-stakes event. Such are always troublesome when handicapping, because a horse like Kentuckian obviously wasn't brought back into training to compete at this level; his connections have their sights set much higher. So you have to wonder just how much effort Kentuckian will be asked to give in this spot. At his best, Kentuckian should out-class this field; but if he runs at less than his best, then this is a much more competitive contest.
Guy Code took the Place at this class level two starts back, and should improve with the freshening. Celebrated Talent took the Show at this class level last time out, and could improve with the cutback in real estate.
Texas Two Step missed by less than a length at this class level two starts back, and could be the one running best late. Well Measured moves up in class after winning easily against OC 40k/N1X competition. Well Measured is a perfect two-for-two in his career over this main track.
RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 8 Eric the Trojan (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Gutsy Ruler (ML 8-1)
# 4 Eltiojohnny (ML 6-1)
# 9 Love My Bud (ML 5-1)
# 10 Tiz a Billy (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Espirito Bueno (ML 8-1)
# 6 Schillairess (ML 7-2)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 My Samurai Warrior (ML 6-1) and # 12 Wildfire Kid (ML 4-1)
Eric the Trojan missed by less than a length at this class level last time out. Gutsy Ruler looks to be quick enough to benefit from the rail draw. Eltiojohnny was a multiple Allowance winner in Mexico City. Eltiojohnny looks to be well bred for turf sprinting.
Love My Bud did well in his only prior turf start, sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita. Tiz a Billy, stakes placed on the dirt, broke his maiden on the grass. Espirito Bueno was a winner on this turf course last time out against state-bred only competition. Schillairess may be out-classed here; but Schillairess, sired by Artie Schiller, deserves another look after the rough trip he had when disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.
RACE 10 - Clm $8k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Pat the Bear (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Ain't No Other (ML 5-1)
# 3 Celebrity Status (ML 5-1)
C's
# 9 Finallygotabently (ML 6-1)
# 10 Justification (ML 6-1)
Pat the Bear won by daylight at this class level last time out. Ain't No Other and Celebrity Status took the Place and Show, respectively, competing against each other at this class level last time out; and both Ain't No Other and Celebrity Status will be going today first off the claim for trainers who tend to do well with such.
Finallygotabently drops in class while going first off the claim for Trainer Kristin Mulhall. Justification took the Show at this class level two starts back, and took the Show against slightly more expensive stock last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 6,7 with 8 with 6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 5,6,7 with 1,4,8,9,10 with 2,3,6 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,9 with 6,7 with 8 with 6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,3 with 8 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 6,7 with 5,6 with 6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 6,7 with 8 with 9,10 $4.00
Total: $63.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment