The Golden Poppy, scheduled to be run on some California grass, is Saturday's featured race at Golden Gate; and, spoiler alert, that's where my big ticket single resides. So if I'm right about that one, well, then I just have to be right about the other five as well, and then I can collect. Anyway, let's get to it, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 4 - Clm $6.25k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Curly Boy (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 Nahem (ML 8-1)
# 5 Star Express (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Giant Mark (ML 9-2)
# 3 Invertigo (ML 4-1)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 9-2)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since April 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have come in either this month or last (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 2 Giant Mark (ML 9-2), # 3 Invertigo (ML 4-1), and # 5 Star Express (ML 3-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Curly Boy returns from an extended leave after having defeated classier stock (this claiming price but with no restrictions) in his more recent starts. Nahem looks to be speed on the rail and could win this one leading from gate to wire.
Star Express finished in the Exacta in six of his last seven races; but all those starts were for Trainer John Martin, from whom Star Express was claimed last time out; so it's fair to wonder how Star Express will perform for his new barn. Giant Mark looks like the one that will be running best late if Curly Boy doesn't fire.
Invertigo is on the ticket because everyone else in this field is. Volkonsky was within a length of the winner at the wire the last time that he competed on this synthetic main track.
RACE 5 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Nightime Olympics (ML 5-2)
# 7 Letithappen (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Johnny Reb (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 6 Sir Vronski (ML 2-1)
Nightime Olympics and Letithappen have won two of their last three starts, and were within a length of the winner at the wire in their respective loss in that sequence. Johnny Reb has done well in the past over this turf course, and may have needed that last race off the layoff.
RACE 6 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Luck Lasts (ML 2-1)
# 4 Oil (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Merle (ML 10-1)
C's
None
Luck Lasts was victorious at this approximate class level last time out (lower claiming price but no restrictions) and will be going first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such. Oil took the Place at this class level last time out behind next out winner Nightime Olympics (who is running again today, in Race 5). Merle looks to be the one that will be running best late in a field that features a lot of early speed.
RACE 7 - (F) The Golden Poppy $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Blushing Bug (ML 30-1)
# 8 Dreamarcher (ML 3-1)
# 10 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 5-1)
# 11 Street Surrender (ML 8-1)
Lady Valeur (Ire) was a stakes winner the last time that she shipped in here from downstate, albeit over the main synthetic track. Lady Valeur appears to have a clear class advantage over the rest of this field.
Blushing Bug took a big step forward last time out, and could improve on that effort with the surface switch. Dreamarcher and Peach Cove (NZ) are a pair that could improve with the cutback in distance. Street Surrender enters this event with a three race winning streak, and may be able to work out a nice stalking trip, even with the far outside draw.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Regal Born (ML 3-1)
# 6 On Trust (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 River House (ML 8-1)
# 7 Cut (ML 4-1)
# 9 J C's Nightcap (ML 10-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 1 Elegant Tanner (No Line), who is slated to run in Race 4 on Sunday. Scratch also # 3 The Perfect Square (ML 20-1) and # 4 Skidoo (ML 20-1)
Regal Born should be the fastest early, especially with the scratch of Skidoo. On Trust ran well in his debut last time out, once he figured out that there was a race going on and he was in it.
River House is a first time starter sired by Many Rivers, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking. Cut, shipping in from downstate, had a nice work over this main track last Saturday. J C's Nightcap took the Place against older last time out.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Unusual Taste (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 4 Southern Freedom (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Anythingscookin (ML 7-2)
# 3 Unusually Green (ML 5-1)
Unusual Taste was victorious at this class level last time out. Southern Freedom took the Show against classier competition (albeit on the main track) last time out.
Anythingscookin was victorious at this class level the last time that he competed over this turf course. Unusually Green seems to fit well at this class level.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket. While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected. I think it's also safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so I should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 5 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 1,4,5 with 5,7 with 3,4,5 with 6 with 2,5,6,7,9 with 4,5 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 2,3,6 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 5 $4.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 5 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 3,8,10,11 with 5,6 with 5 $6.40
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 2,3 $3.20
Total: $59.20
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:45 EDT / 2:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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