What's this? Kentucky Derby weekend and this blog has not gone dark? Well, long story short, health issues have forced me to be a scratch from this year's activities with The Derby Crew at Green Valley Ranch. Rest assured, it's nothing serious, and Good Lord willing I'll be out there once again in 2018. But for now I'm here and you're there, so let's get to it as we take a run at The Mid Card Pick Five ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
RACE 7 - The Twin Spires Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Pure Sensation (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Holding Gold (ML 4-1)
# 4 Why Two (ML 5-1)
# 12 Green Mask (ML 3-1)
C's
# 10 Black Bear (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 2 Platinum Prince (ML 20-1) and Maniacal (ML 12-1)
Pure Sensation's last start was in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, where his Show finish ended a three race winning streak. Pure Sensation has demonstrated the ability in the past to win at this level on a softened turf.
Holding Gold won the Grade 2 Shakertown last time out, with Green Mask just a neck behind. Why Two has been working well for this, his 2017 debut. Black Bear should do well with the surface switch.
RACE 8 - (F) The Eight Belles (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Union Strike (ML 3-1)
# 10 Ghalia (ML 7-2)
B's
# 14 Cajun Delta Dawn (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Lovely Bernadette (ML 30-1)
# 4 Pretty City Dancer (ML 8-1)
# 7 Golden Mischief (ML 12-1)
# 9 Florida Fabulous (ML 9-2)
Union Strike did quite well for herself in her first start of 2017 last time out, and she has been working well for this event. Ghalia, undefeated in three tries, should do well in the off going. Cajun Delta Dawn, three-for-four lifetime on un-Fast tracks, shows a nice, steady workout pattern heading into this contest.
Lovely Bernadette and Pretty City Dancer could each improve with the return to one turn racing. Golden Mischief could be the one running best late if Union Strike gets caught in traffic. Florida Fabulous shows nothing but ones in both of her career starts, and could give Ghalia a tough time in the early going.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 River Echo (GB) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Taketothestreets (ML 6-1)
# 7 Tom's d'Etat (ML 7-2)
# 12 Goats Town (ML 6-1)
C's
# 10 Langdarma (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 11 Pinson (ML 12-1); but don't bring in any of the Also Eligibles; as # 13 Gangster (ML 7-2), # 14 Rich Daddy (ML 20-1), and # 15 Homespun Hero (ML 8-1) all get to sit this one out.
River Echo (GB) has shown a marked improvement since switching to the dirt for Trainer Peter Miller. Taketothestreets was a winner at this approximate class level two starts back at Oaklawn Park, and could be the speed of the speed here.
Tom's d'Etat has run well wherever he has shipped. Goats Town took the Place behind Taketothestreets two starts back, and could move up on the wet surface. Langdarma has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last six starts.
RACE 10 - (F) The Edgewood (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dream Dancing / # 1A La Coronel (ML 8-5)
# 6 Stallion Heiress (ML 6-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Bernadiva (ML 12-1)
# 7 Proctor's Ledge (ML 5-1)
# 8 Storm the Hill (ML 12-1)
Yes, La Coronel, winner of the Grade 3 Appalachian last time out, will run here, rather than in Saturday's American Turf (apparently La Coronel's connections didn't like the outside draw that they pulled for tomorrow's contest). La Coronel and her entry mate, Dream Dancing, winner of the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride two starts back, make a formidable pair.
Stallion Heiress, undefeated in three lifetime starts, looks like the one that they'll have to catch. Bernadiva made a nice move forward last time out. Bernadiva has also down well in the past on a softened course.
Proctor's Ledge took the Show behind La Coronel in the Appalachian last time out. Storm the Hill is undefeated since moving to the barn of Trainer Peter Miller.
RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Paradise Woods (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Farrell (ML 5-1)
# 10 Miss Sky Warrior (ML 9-2)
# 13 Abel Tasman (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 15 Summer Luck (ML 30-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list.
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet." - Damon Runyon.
Had her connections chosen to run her in tomorrow's Derby, Paradise Woods would have to have been considered a strong contender. Here, she seems to simply out-class the rest of the field. But, this being her first time on an off going, it seems prudent to have some backup just in case.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 3,4,8,12 with 2,10,14 with 3,4,7,12 with 1,6 with 4 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 10 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 3,4,7,9 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 10 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 2,7,8 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 7,10,13 $6.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:00 EDT / 11:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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