So here we are, the big day, the first Saturday in May. Enjoy it, horse players, because this day was meant for us; with not just the biggest racing event of the year on tap, but an absolute plethora of wagering options to support it. So with all that let's just get to it, as we take a run at the mid-card Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.
RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Oscar Performance (Morning Line 7-2)
# 10 Good Samaritan (ML 5-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Holiday Stone (ML 15-1)
# 2 Big Score (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 11 La Coronel (ML 8-1), winner of yesterday's Edgewood
Oscar Performance and Good Samaritan filled out two thirds of the Trifecta in last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. This will be Good Samaritan's first start since that event; but Trainer Bill Mott tends to do well when bringing his runners back from an extended leave.
Oscar Performance has had a start in 2017, in last month's Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland; a start which you can just toss, in my opinion, as Oscar Performance lost all chance at the break. This is also why I rate the chances of Big Score and Holiday Stone somewhat below those of Oscar Performance today, even though Big Score and Holiday Stone filled out the Exacta in front of Oscar Performance in the Transylvania last time out.
RACE 10 - The Churchill Downs (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Awesome Slew (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Masochistic (ML 5-2)
# 12 Denman's Call (ML 8-1)
C's
# 5 Clearly Now (ML 6-1)
# 7 Solid Wager (ML 30-1)
# 13 Tom's Ready (ML 15-1)
Awesome Slew closed well in winning the Grade 3 Commonwealth last time out, and should find plenty of pace to chase here as well. Denman's Call and Masochistic filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out, and they could very well do likewise again here today.
Clearly Now responded well to the rider switch last time out. Solid Wager could rebound with the return to one turn racing. Tom's Ready could be the one running best late should Awesome Slew get stuck in traffic.
RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Bal a Bali (ML 6-1)
# 8 Beach Patrol (ML 5-1)
# 11 Can'thelpbelieving (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 Divisidero (ML 4-1)
# 4 Conquest Panthera (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Oscar Nominated (ML 15-1)
# 9 Enterprising (12-1)
Scratch # 7 World Approval (ML 6-1)
Bal a Bali won the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile in his 2017 debut last time out. Beach Patrol, Place finisher in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap last time out, could find himself with an uncontested lead early, and possibly late. Can'thelpbelieving makes his 2017 debut after winning the Grade 3 Cliff Hanger for fun last time out.
Divisidero has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last three starts; but Divisidero's ability to win on Kentucky Derby Day at Chruchill Downs is well documented. Conquest Panthera has closed well in each of his 2017 starts, and he should appreciate the increase in distance. Enterprising and Oscar Nominated have proven to be approximate equals to each other of late; perhaps their form will hold as they move up in class together.
RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 17 Irish War Cry (ML 6-1)
# 18 Gormley (ML 15-1)
B's
# 2 Thunder Snow (ML 20-1)
# 5 Always Dreaming (ML 5-1)
# 8 Hence (ML 15-1)
# 14 Classic Empire (ML 4-1)
C's
# 9 Irap (ML 20-1)
# 10 Gunnevera (ML 15-1)
# 11 Battle of Midway (ML 30-1)
# 13 J Boys Echo (ML 20-1)
# 15 McCraken (ML 5-1)
# 16 Tapwrit (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 21 Royal Mo (ML 20-1) and # 22 Master Plan (ML 50-1)
Irish War Cry and Gormley, in my opinion, give me the best on the East Coast and the best on the West Coast as my top selections. In a Derby field that seems to lack a real standout, these are the two that have, in my analysis, best demonstrated the ability to defeat quality competition on more than one occasion.
The “B” Selections give us six for this leg on the big ticket. And while it’s hard to be certain about anything in a race this wide open, I like our coverage with these half dozen runners, should we be fortunate enough to still be in the game after the first three legs.
As for the “C” Selections, the deep backups, if you will, the six I've selected give us an even dozen entrants for this leg. And while twelve runners are certainly a lot to use in a single leg in any multi-race wager, keep in mind that using twelve in a field of twenty is just slightly more than half the field, which seems like appropriate percentage of use in a race this wide open.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, am I over budget. But this is the Kentucky Derby, and a wide open Kentucky Derby at that. So let's just roll with it. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,10 with 1 with 6,8,11 with 17,18 $12.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,2,12 with 2,4,6,8,11 with 2,5,8,14,17,18 $90.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 1 with 6,8,11 with 17,18 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 5,7,13 with 6,8,11 with 17,18 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1 with 3,9 with 17,18 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1 with 6,8,11 with 9,10,11,13,15,16 $18.00
Total: $148.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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