It's Sunday, the middle day in a holiday weekend in the United States, and hopefully all the good things that you have planned for this time are coming to pass. Speaking of pass, we all passed on grabbing the Pick Six Jackpot Saturday, as nobody was able to string together the half dozen consecutive wins needed to grab the golden ring. But the good news is that we all get to try again today, with an even bigger prize on the line. So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 4 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Jimmy the Juice (Morning Line 9-5)
# 5 Soap Box (ML 7-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Simply Charming (ML 6-1)
# 6 Black Sona (ML 2-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less. For the record, # 2 Glopress (ML 15-1) and # 6 Black Sona (ML 2-1) are the only two runners in this field to have made just one trip to the Winner's Circle in their career.
Jimmy the Juice took the Place at this approximate class level last time out. Soap Box seems to have the breeding to do well on the turf, and he looks to be the one that they'll have to catch.
Black Sona has finished in the Trifecta under these conditions in each of his last two starts. Simply Charming should move up with the turn back in distance.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $3.2k N2Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Tight Lines (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Mischief Pearl (ML 6-1)
# 7 Tanned Mischief (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Dizzy Tizzy (ML 1-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have not won two races in 2017, excluding Maiden races, as well as Claiming and Starter races for less than $2.5k.
Dizzy Tizzy looked like a ringer in this field, so her being scratched really changes how this contest is viewed, as well as the composition of my tickets.
Tight Lines and Mischief Pearl are two that lost all chance at the start in their respective last time out, and each should move forward today. Tanned Mischief is returning from an extended vacation, so she may need this race; but Tanned Mischief also may do well at this shortened distance.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Unusual Meeting (ML 5-2)
# 4 Administer (ML 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Small Town Cop (ML 7-2)
# 2 Solomon Bay (ML 9-2)
Unusual Meeting lost all chance at the start last time out (gee, I seem to be typing that a lot today. Was something going on with the area around the starting gate lately?). Administer has finished in the Trifecta against more expensive in each of his last three starts.
Small Town Cop has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in four of his last five starts; perhaps he gets to the wire on time today. Solomon Bay took the Place against more expensive stock both two and three starts back.
RACE 7 - Md $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Raindance Rules (ML 2-1)
B's
# 7 Soolaimon (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 5 River House (ML 3-1)
Raindance Rules should improve with the drop in class and the return to the synthetic surface. Soolaimon could move up with the return to one turn racing.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Pyscho Sister (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Causeway Carolyn (ML 3-1)
# 6 Chronologic'sghost (ML 9-2)
# 7 Qiaona (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Tiz a Tommy Town (ML 12-1)
# 3 Fervent Femme (ML 9-2)
# 5 You're Late (ML 12-1)
Pyscho Sister could improve going second off the layoff, and looks like the one that they'll have to catch. Causeway Carolyn missed victory by just a neck at this class level last time out, albeit on the grass.
Chronologic'sghost should improve with the stretchout. Qiaona fits at this class level. The backups are everyone else, as this field doesn't show a lot of victories in their most recent efforts, which is rather unusual for this class level.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Mended (ML 7-5)
# 6 Californiasunshine (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 5 Blushing Bug (ML 8-1)
C's
None
Mended tries to make it five Wins in a row, as she has visited the Winner's Circle in every start since joining the barn of Trainer John Martin. Californiasunshine was victorious at this approximate class level last time out. Blushing Bug could improve with the drop in class.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket. While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected. I think it's also safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so I should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 1,5 with 6 with 3,4 with 3 with 4 with 1,6 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 1,5 with 4,6,7 with 3,4 with 3,7 with 1,4,6,7 with 1,5,6 $57.60
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 4,6 with 6 with 3,4 with 3 with 4 with 1,6 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 1,5 with 6 with 1,2 with 3 with 4 with 1,6 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 1,5 with 6 with 3,4 with 3 with 2,3,5 with 1,6 $4.80
Total: $73.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:44 EDT / 2:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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