Saturday, February 10, 2018

2/10/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

There's a trio of Graded Stakes on the Santa Anita card Saturday; none of which made their way onto the final four contests on the program.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Is Trevor Clever (Morning Line  3-1)

B's

# 2 Seau (ML 4-1)
# 3 Wise Curlin (ML 5-2)
# 5 Path of Exile (ML 9-2)
# 8 Black Storm (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Second Gear (ML 30-1)
# 6 Son of the South (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kewanee Coyne (ML 15-1)
# 9 Bryan Habana (Arg) (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 10 Traffic Thief (ML 10-1)

Is Trevor Clever has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three starts; perhaps today will be the day that Is Trevor Clever breaks clean from the gate.  Seau took the Show behind Is Trevor Clever at the wire his last time out on Jan 20; while Path of Exile took the Show behind Is Trevor Clever his last time out, back on Jan 6.

Wise Curlin could move up with the return to the main track.  Black Storm may be quicker than these with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, as this one looks to be wide open, as the field seems to have several that prefer to settle for minor awards.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Van Cortlandt (ML 3-1)
# 7 Tony Blackjack (ML 5-1)
# 8 Lord Admiral (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Tartini (ML 4-1)
# 9 Incredible Luck (ML 10-1)

Sawyer's Hill is the clear class of this field, and off his prior record over this track could make for a tempting single; but the concern with Sawyer's Hill is that the extended layoff, coupled with his connections willingness to enter him in a contest where they could lose him for the $40k price tag, suggests that Sawyer's Hill may not be the same horse that he was last Summer.

Van Corlandt took the Show at this class level last time out.  Tony Blackjack's pedigree suggests that he'll do well on the lawn.  Lord Admiral could move up with the cutback in distance.

Tartini is another that could improve thanks to having to cover less real estate.  Incredible Luck could move up off the freshening.

RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Desert General (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 10 Quick Finish (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Caray (ML 10-1)
# 7 Bacoli (ML 10-1)
# 9 Conqueror (ML 5-2)
# 11 Liberty Jack (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 6 Fire to the Wire (ML 15-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for runners which have not won two races in their career; a tidbit of information which for some reason never seems to find its way into the running lines of the Past Performances.

Desert General has proven to be competitive at this class level in the recent past.  Quick Finish tries winners for the first time, after defeating non-Claiming state-bred maidens convincingly last time out.

Caray seems to have improved with the blinkers being removed.  Bacoli took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit on the turf.  Conqueror disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out.  Liberty Jack was much improved last time out in his first start for Trainer Billy Morey.

RACE 10 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 Eskimo Roses (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Jungle Warfare (ML 3-1)
# 11 Pointed (ML 6-1)

C's

# 5 Frenchmen Street (ML 6-1)
# 9 Majestic Eagle (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 2 Phoenix Fire (ML 10-1)

Eskimo Roses, Jungle Warfare, and Pointed filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta at this class level when they charged down the hill together back on January 7.  Frenchmen Street showed good early speed routing on the flats last time out; such tend to do well when charging down the hill.  Majestic Eagle could move up with the move to the lawn.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 6 with 12 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8 with 5,6,7,8 with 10,12 with 1,8,11 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6,7,9 with 6 with 12 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,9 with 12 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 3,7,9,11 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 12 with 5,9 $1.00

Total: $67.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:19 EST / 3:19 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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