Saturday is a big day for Kentucky Derby prep races across the United States, and Santa Anita is no exception, with the scheduled running of the Grade 3 Robert B Lewis. Unfortunately that contest will fall outside my purview, being carded, as it were, outside the final four races on Saturday's card. But I will be looking at the Grade 2 San Marcos, as well as the Grade 2 San Pasqual, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Reverend Al (Morning Line 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Summer Buddha (ML 30-1)
# 3 Mercer Island (ML 5-2)
# 8 Moonlight Blue (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Southern Thunder (ML 6-1)
# 7 Moonman (ML 7-2)
Reverend Al is getting some much needed class relief here. Summer Buddha took the Show behind a next out winner two starts back, which was the last time Summer Buddha went around two turns. Summer Buddha may also move up off the freshening.
Mercer Island could move up with the class drop. Moonlight Blue and Southern Thunder filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Moonman took the Show at this class level two starts back.
RACE 7 - The San Marcos (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 9-5)
B's
# 4 Isotherm (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Hayabusa One (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Editore (Brz) (ML 6-1)
Itsinthepost (Fr) was a half length behind Isotherm in last year's running of this event, and while Isotherm probably needed that last race (the Grade 2 San Gabriel) and should improve off the effort, I think Itsinthepost's form going into Saturday is much the better.
Flamboyant (Fr) took the Show in this event last year, and seems to be settling for too many minor awards. Hayabusa One (Fr) closed well last time out in his first try for Trainer Peter Miller, and may be able to handle this class jump. Editore (Brz) could move up with a better trip.
RACE 8 - The San Pasqual (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Accelerate (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Mubtaahij (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Pavel (ML 4-1)
# 7 Irish Freedom (ML 6-1)
# 8 Prime Attraction (ML 6-1)
# 9 Top of the Game (ML 3-1)
Accelerate looks to be best here; the only question is can Accelerate keep it going for the full nine furlongs. If he can't, then Mubtaahij (Ire) appears to be the most likely candidate to run by him late.
Pavel can contend if he can find the form that led him to his Show finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup; but the rail draw here certainly did Pavel no favors. Irish Freedom, the "other" Baffert here, had a reasonably nice work over this track the day after Christmas, taking the scenic route around the track while the other horses were competing in the Grade 1 Malibu. I expect Irish Freedom to be more seriously ridden for this event.
Prime Attraction can contend if he can bring the form from Del Mar over to Acadia. On the other hand, Top of the Game has yet to lose in four tries over this main track, albeit all against lesser company.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Beau Square (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Ms Wakaya (ML 12-1)
# 5 Gotham Desire (ML 6-1)
# 10 Del Mar Ann (ML 4-1)
# 11 Bowie (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Rooms (ML 30-1)
# 7 Sturdy One (ML 12-1)
Beau Square took the Show at this class level charging down the hill last time out. Ms Wakaya displayed good early speed routing on the flat last time out; runners such as that tend to do well when trying the downhill course for the first time.
Gotham Desire was much improved with the hood being added, and may be able to make the jumpt to open company. Del Mar Ann took the Place at this class level two starts back. Bowie showed good form in her turf debut down at Del Mar last time out, and may be quickest here.
Rooms might improve with the blinkers being put back on. Sturdy One fits well here on class, though it's unclear why Sturdy One would be put back on the lawn after a solid victory last time out over the main track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 5 with 3 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8 with 4,5 with 2,3 with 3,5,8,10,11 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 5 with 3 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,7,8 with 3 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 1,7,8,9 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 3 with 2,7 $1.00
Total: $46.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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