10/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's a rainy day in Southern California; everything is off the grass, and the main track is (at this time) listed as Wet Fast.  Generally, I try to avoid playing a card on such days; but it's raining most everywhere (it seems) in North America, so I figured I'd just keep it at the track where I had already printed the Past Performances.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Absolutely Perfect (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 3 Coco Kisses (ML 5-2)
# 4 Paprika (ML 3-1)
# 5 Lovely Finish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Smoovie (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Into Rissa (ML 10-1)

# 2 Encountress (ML 12-1)

# 6 Tribal Ann (ML 10-1)

This contest (at least, so far) has remained clean; which, looking at the field, makes sense, as none of the entrants has shown themselves to be a standout as of yet, so why not try the off footing and see what happens.  With that in mind, I decided to go with a first time starter as my top selection in this race; and in my opinion the best of the debut runners is Absolutely Perfect, who has been working well leading up to today, and seems well bred to handle to off going.

Coco Kisses has the talent to win at this level, though she seems to settle for too many minor awards.  Paprika ran well over this main track in the past, albeit during drier times.  Lovely Finish has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two career starts, both at this class level.  Smoovie could be quickest here, especially with the hood being added.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) [S] The California Distaff $100k - Five Furlongs Dirt (Originally Scheduled For Turf)

A’s

# 9 S Y Sky (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Meet and Greet (ML 5-1)

# 10 Love a Honeybadger (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Hailey Rachele (ML 20-1)

# 6 Ismelucky (ML 12-1)

# 7 How About Zero (ML 4-1)

# 8 Late 'n Left (ML 30-1)

# 11 Family Girl (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Princess Roi (ML 8-1) and # 3 Beau Square (ML 10-1)

EDIT:  # 4 Helen's Tiger (ML 12-1), originally my "A" Selection, has been scratched.  # 9  S Y Sky is now my "A" Selection; the tickets below have been updated accordingly.

This seems like a good time to point out that the Morning Line that I'm using is from when these Past Performances were first released; so, needless to say, with the scratches and the change in conditions, they really don't mean much.  So don't expect to be getting 12-1 on Helen's Tiger, though that would be very nice.

Helen's Tiger fits well here on class, and has run quite well at today's distance in the past.  Meet and Gret's only career loss came right before she went on the shelf for close to eight months.

S Y Sky misses by just a length of being four-for-four for her career; but I'm not sure if she can get there in time at today's shortened distance.  Love a Honeybadger looks to be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Two Fifty Coup (ML 8-5)

# 13 Mr. Class (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Bonsail Treasure (ML 15-1)
# 2 Redrock Trail (ML 7-2)

# 3 Samurai Jack (ML 6-1)
# 5 Warrensdirtydancer (ML 30-1)

# 7 Lifesbeengoodsofar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Nations Hope (ML 12-1)
# 9 Jonathantoquick (ML 12-1)
# 10 Empirical Data (ML 20-1)
# 11 Magic Bro (ML 15-1)

# 12 Silent Musketier (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 6 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 20-1)

Two Fifty Coup and Mr. Class each look to be much the best here, and there seems little reason to choose between the two, as the scratches in the other legs have eliminated many contenders.  Just to be safe, the remainder of the field are being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt (Originally Scheduled For Downhill Turf)

A’s

# 2 Well Hello (ML 5-1)

B's

# 12 Tyfosha (ML 12-1)

# 13 Snaked (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Demigoddess (ML 50-1)
# 6 Lightning Dove (ML 10-1)

# 8 Clearly Gone (ML 20-1)

# 10 Media Tone (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 3 Great Return (ML 3-1); # 4 Ladybug (ML 4-1); # 5 Pursuing The Dream (Ire) (ML 12-1); # 7 Navajo Dreamer (Ire) (ML 8-1); # 9 Chatty (ML 6-1); # 11 Nice Ice (ML 8-1); # 14 Easy Grader (ML 5-1)

Looking at the conditions, this looks like a pretty typical OC $40k/N1X written out in a very complicated manner.  Anyway, the most important thing to note is that none of these are in for a tag.

Well Hello looks classiest here, and should improve with the return to one turn racing.  Tyfosha could be quickest here.  Snaked is undefeated since joining the barn of Trainer Steve Knapp.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 4,13 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,7,8 with 5,9,10 with 4,13 with 2,12,13 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,6 with 9 with 4,13 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,6,7,8,11 with 4,13 with 2 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 2 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 4,13 with 1,6,8,10 $4.00

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:48 EDT / 3:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo