10/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

A Listed Stakes, as well as a pair of contests for state bred lifetime non-winners of one, are among the races comprising the final four events on the program in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at each of them below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 1 Red Envelope (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 9 Sir Eddie (ML 4-1)

# 10 Ostini (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Valiant (ML 20-1)

# 3 Raise the Gamble (ML 50-1)

# 4 Cool Your Jets (ML 6-1)

# 6 Thomas Henry (ML 10-1)

# 7 Nevermissesabeat (ML 4-1)

# 8 Captain Buzzkill (ML 12-1)
# 11 Reckless Gravity (ML 20-1)

# 12 Dynamic Duo (ML 50-1)

Scratch # 5 Astonishing Tweet (ML 5-1); # 13 Leroy Pegasus (ML 50-1); and # 14 Atonarun (ML 6-1)

This is as good a place as any to mention that in California state bred only races are actually open not just to any runners that are California bred but also to those that are California sired.  That's why Captain Buzzkill is eligible to compete here despite being Kentucky bred; because Captain Buzzkill's sire, Ministers Wild Cat, stands at Tommy Town Thoroughbreds in California.

Red Envelope has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his two career starts; and Red Envelope seems well bred to handle the move to the lawn.  Sir Eddie has taken the Place in each of his three prior tries charging down the hill.  Ostini has shown good early speed when routing on the flats; such tend to do well when charging down the hill.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 I Belong to Becky (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Stay in Yo Lane (ML 5-2)

# 6 Starring John Wain (ML 4-1)

# 7 Concord Jet (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Poppy's C Note (ML 8-1)
# 2 Calder Vale (ML 8-1)
# 3 Unplayable (ML 12-1)
# 8 S On My Chest (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 9 Forestation (ML 20-1)

I Belong to Becky and Stay in Yo Lane filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Starring John Wain adds the blinkers and drops in for a tag for the first time.  Concord Jet took the Show behind a next out winner last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Just Grazed Me (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 5 Ransomed (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Starr of Quality (ML 4-1)
# 3 Whirling (ML 8-1)

# 4 Danushka's My Girl (ML 8-1)

# 6 Jest a Princess (ML 10-1)
# 7 Secret Spice (ML 5-2)

Just Grazed Me took the Place last time out in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Ransomed seems to be in good form as she's been working her way up the class ladder, and Trainer Vann Belvoir tends to do well when placing his last out winners.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Swingtime $70k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Fahan Mura (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Way to Versailles (ML 7-2)

# 6 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 9 Cordiality (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Impasse (ML 20-1)
# 3 Okinawa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Quebec (ML 10-1)

# 5 Barleysugar (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 7 Melissa Jane (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tonahutu (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 11 Achira (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 12 India Mantuana (ML 20-1) and # 13 Shehastheritestuff (ML 20-1)

Fahan Mura took the Show in the Grade 2 John C Mabee last time out, and is undefeated in four tries over this turf course.  Way to Versailles won the Grade 2 Royal North last time out, albeit while going around just one turn.

The Tulip (Ire) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Cordiality took the Show in the Grade 3 Wilshire over this turf course two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 1 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,9,10 with 4,5,6,7 with 1,5 with 1,6,9,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12 with 4 with 1 with 10 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,3,8 with 1 with 10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 10 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,11 $3.50

Total: $61.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo