10/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

As I type this, it appears that things have dried out in Arcadia, as races Sunday are back on the turf, including the down the hill course.  Since half of today's final four races are carded for the downhill course, I'm hopeful that will not change, since if those races are moved to the main track, I'll then have to effectively re-handicap my entire play.  So with that said let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $35k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 R Cha Cha (Morning Line 8-1)

B’s

# 2 David's Memory (ML 6-1)
# 4 Cats Blame (ML 5-2)
# 6 Invasion Looming (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Westwood's Wizard (ML 4-1)
# 5 Zippy Groom (ML 15-1)
# 7 Silver Summer (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 King Cause (ML 5-1)

R Cha Cha has run well in the past charging down the Santa Anita hill, and looks to be the best here, provided that he's recovered from what caused the voided claim last time out followed by six weeks on the shelf.  David's Memory's two career victories have come over this downhill course, and David's Memory should appreciate the class relief.

Cats Blame has run well in the past when charging down the hill; but the hood removal is a bit of a concern, as it appears that his connections are trying to get Cats Blame re-focused.  Invasion Looming is another getting some much needed class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Show Hostess (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Tiz a Sharpie (ML 6-1)
# 5 Samandah (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Miss Bennet (ML 12-1)
# 3 Sold It (ML 3-1)
# 6 Orca (ML 6-1)
# 7 Discrete Stevie B (ML 30-1)
# 9 Soothing (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Enaya Alrabb (ML 9-2)

Show Hostess and Samandah look to have been working best among the debut runners in this field, as there doesn't appear to be a true standout amongst the experienced entrants.  Tiz a Sharpie was a well beaten third in her debut last time out; but Tiz a Sharpie may move up with the increase in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Avanti Bello (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Drizzy (ML 10-1)
# 2 Plain Wrap (ML 6-1)

# 3 Ground Attack (ML 5-1)
# 4 Surfing Star (ML 9-2)
# 6 Carville (ML 4-1)
# 7 California Journey (ML 5-1)

Avanti Bello looks much the best here.  Were I to double the cost of the big ticket by adding another entrant, it would probably be Plain Wrap, as he appears to be the most talented among the rest of the field.  But Plain Wrap is a career one-for-twenty-four, and I'm going to take a change that he doesn't decide Sunday to make that two-for-twenty-five.  So Plain Wrap goes in with the backup "C" Selections, along with all the others in this bunch who aren't Avanti Bello.

RACE 9 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 7 Calexman (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Little Juanito (ML 8-1)

# 2 Denman's Call (ML 12-1)

# 3 Brandothebartender (ML 12-1)

# 4 Artie B Good (ML 8-1)
# 5 Eric the Trojan (ML 4-1)

# 6 Flip the Coin Jan (ML 4-1)

# 8 Tule Fog (ML 8-1)

# 9 Afleet Ascent (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Calexman, Show finisher in the Grade 3 LaJolla, looks best here; but not much the best, in my opinion.  So I'm just not going to fool with this leg.  I've got my single above; so for this event, it's everybody into the pool as I punch the "ALL" button.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 8 with 5 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,8 with 4,5,8 with 5 with ALL $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 8 with 5 with 7 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,3,6,7,9 with 5 with 7 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 with 7 $3.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EDT / 3:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo